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(905) Cincinnati Reds at (906) Philadelphia Phillies

Event:
(905) Cincinnati Reds at (906) Philadelphia Phillies
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
April 1, 2024 6PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-113
Play:
3% – (905) Cincinnati Reds at (906) Philadelphia Phillies Total Over 8.0 (-113) Action
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take Cincinnati - Philadelphia OVER (#905-906) (action)

The betting markets have bet Cinci -Philly Under this morning, driving this total all the way down to 8 at many books.  That’s too low in a matchup where both lineups are hitting and both bullpens are problematic.  The Reds have scored at least six runs in every game while going 3-0 to the Over so far this season.  The Phillies, too, are 3-0 to the Over, and they’ve scored nine runs over the last two games after facing elite ace Spencer Strider in the opener.  Current form and early season MLB high scoring games (more than 60% Overs on opening weekend) clearly tell us that Over is the way to look here.

Yes, we have two young lefties on the hill, and young lefties tend to do well when facing an opponent for the first time.  That said, neither starter is likely to eat up innings, especially on a bad weather evening in Philly.  And both bullpens are primed to give up runs in bunches.  The Phillies used up every key arm from their bullpen over the weekend; Cinci, too, used their bullpen extensively and it’s not a good bullpen to begin with.  This is a ‘fade both bullpens’ play as much as any other factor.  Expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard in a game that has all the makings of a relatively high scoring Slugfest.  Take the OVER.

Line Parameter: 3% at 8.5 or lower, 2% at 9 or higher

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