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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers

Event:
(909) San Francisco Giants at (910) Los Angeles Dodgers
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
April 1, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-105
Play:
4% – San Francisco Giants +1.5 (-105) K Winn (RHP), J Paxton (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Giants (10:10PM ET NBCSBA, SNLA, MLB.TV) – As promised I’m going to be more aggressive on the bases going forward now that we have gotten to see each team play a series and I’ll head out west for one of the biggest rivalries in the sport when the San Francisco Giants kick off a three game set with the Los Angeles Dodgers at Dodger Stadium in Los Angeles, California.

I have my reasons for liking the Giants and wanting to play against the Dodgers on the RL this season so I’m going to hope those two worlds successfully collide here.  Until the Dodgers are in mid-season form, which is not the case yet, I think there’s going to be some great opportunities to fade the Dodgers on the -1.5 line.  The key to the +1.5 betting is the price, I personally won’t lay more than -110 (maybe -115 if I absolutely love it) and since the Dodgers are the most hyped team in baseball this season there will be the most opportunity to go against them with the +1.5 line.  The Dodgers might be a 100 win team this season, but right now they are 4-2 and currently 3-3 against the -1.5 line.  In all three instances the +1.5 line for the opposition was at a playable price and that’s the case again tonight at -105 with the extra added in value of San Francisco being the road team.  That wrinkle is quite simple, if you can grab a road team on the run line you basically get yourself a free at bat as the only way the Dodgers bat nine times here is if this thing is tied entering the bottom of the 9th or the Dodgers are trailing.  San Francisco grinded out an impressive road split with the Padres to open the season, I think the Giants are probably better than they are getting credit for so I’ll take a shot with the run head start here. 

The Dodgers are an offensive juggernaut, they are currently averaging 6.5 runs per game through six games and are on pace for over 1,000 runs this season but that was all expected and that’s the reason we are getting the “free run AND free AB” here.  What that means is it’s probably going to take a few runs from San Francisco to cash this ticket but I think we get them off veteran southpaw James Paxton who makes his Dodgers debut here.  Paxton was banged up all of last year, he battled hamstring and knee injuries and made just 19 starts for the hapless Red Sox.  That’s been the case for Paxton for most of the last decade, he’s eclipsed 150 innings just twice since 2013 so this is a “low risk high reward” move for the Dodgers and someone they could easily move on from as they get guys like Walker Buehler back if things don’t go well.  I don’t expect Paxton to be dominant, he hasn’t had a truly productive season since going 15-6 for the Yankees in 2019 and I think “peak Paxton” days have passed for the lefty that will turn 36 this November.  His job will be to go out there and eat innings, knowing the Dodgers have the offense to back him up until he hands the ball off to the bullpen but that’s something I think the Giants can take advantage of and potentially steal one from the Dodgers here.

This series was awesome last season, the Dodgers edged it out with a 7-6 record and I fully expect it to be competitive again this year.  San Francisco counters with Keaton Winn, he’s likely on a pitch count which means the Giants will have to get creative with how they stack their pitching but yesterday’s blowout loss makes that possible here. My guess is we see Winn give way to Taylor and Tyler Rogers in the hopes those three can get the ball to Camilo Doval to close out the game.  I think that’s doable if Winn can get through the order once unscathed and I like the fact the Giants are not likely to push him through a second time knowing he’s on a pitch count.  I think it will be more difficult for the Dodgers to figure out the Giants mixing and matching than it will be getting to see the same guy two or three times so maybe not the worst thing for the Giants here.  We also have the Dodgers coming off a comeback win on Sunday Night Baseball where they needed their top relievers so it’s possible we get the Dodgers “B” bullpen with potential to get back in this game if the Giants fall behind. 

I think there’s some upside to a lineup with guys like Jung-Hoo Lee (elite player from KBO that the league hasn’t figured out yet, Matt Chapman (possible bounce back season) and someone like Jorge Soler who was huge for the Braves back in 2021.  Bob Melvin is a terrific coach, this Giants team will scrap and I see the appeal to taking the +1.5 with them here.  Play on Giants +1.5 (-105) for 4% (or 4 units)

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