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(657) NC State at (658) Duke

Event:
(657) NC State at (658) Duke
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 31, 2024 5PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
5% – Duke -6.0 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

5% Big Ticket: Take Duke (#658)

My clients and have cashed a pair of 5% Big Ticket winners backing Duke in each of their last two ballgames.  I have no hesitation coming back with another ‘step-up’ sized wager to support the Blue Devils in their matchup with NC State on Sunday with a trip to the Final Four on the line.  Let me start with some excerpts from my previous two pro-Duke write-ups:

“My clients and I cashed with Duke in their opening round win over Vermont.  The Blue Devils did not bring their ‘A’ game, shooting only 42% from the floor, 33% from three point range, while missing nine free throws. It didn’t matter – Duke’s defense was more than good enough to control the flow throughout, and their size and athleticism was too much for the Catamounts to handle.  I’m expecting more of the same on Sunday. 

Let’s not forget that after Duke’s run to the Final Four in Coach K’s final season on the job, Duke didn’t even make the Sweet 16 last year under Jon Scheyer, bounced by Tennessee in the second round last year; as hungry and motivated as it gets.  Last year, they started four freshmen in their loss in the Round of 32, as young as it gets.  This year, Duke only starts one frosh and he’s an NBA bound stud! 

Duke’s defense ranks in the Top 20 for the full season according to Ken Pom’s advanced metrics.  Through three tourney games, only UConn and Clemson have better defensive numbers in this tournament than the Blue Devils do. And no team in the Big Dance has allowed fewer points than Duke; holding all three of their previous foes to 55 points or less.  That’s bad news for the Wolfpack, who have a grand total of TWO victories all year in games where they didn’t reach 70 points.

NC State was an 11 point underdog when they beat Duke in the ACC Tournament on a neutral floor two weeks ago.  Duke was -6 AT NC State earlier in March, a game they won by 15.  Now we’re seeing Duke laying less than a touchdown on a neutral floor to a team that has overachieved like no other here in March. I’ll give NC State all the credit in the world for playing over their heads for the last 2 ½ weeks, but make no mistake about it – Duke is the class here, and I expect it to show.  Even if the Blue Devils don’t pull away early, their end game execution and solid free throw shooting should give them ample opportunity to pull away late.   Big Ticket: Take Duke 

Line Parameter: 5% at -7 or lower, 4% at -7.5 or higher

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