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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(653) Clemson at (654) Alabama

Event:
(653) Clemson at (654) Alabama
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 30, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
2%
Odds:
-110
Play:
2% – (653) Clemson at (654) Alabama Total Over 164.0 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

We've got a regular season rematch in the Elite Eight after Clemson earned a 85-77 road win in Tuscaloosa at the end of November. The Tigers have put bettors and oddsmakers in a blender over the last week. How much of their success is coming as a result of Clemson's tenacious defense, and how much is coming from opponents that can't put the ball in the hoop? Since the beginning of February, Clemson has suffered losses to Virginia, NC State, Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Boston College. With that kind of profile, few people thought the Tigers were poised for a deep run in this tournament. Clemson has run into a trio of teams that couldn't make shots. New Mexico, Baylor and Arizona combined to shoot 14-of-75 from three-point range against the Tigers. Brad Brownell is known as a defensive-minded coach and his team is prepared to switch defenses at the drop of a hat (like going to a zone against Arizona), but they are catching lightning in a bottle right now. Let's focus on the total in this one. The 164.5 that we're seeing on Saturday morning is the lowest total in an Alabama game since playing Texas A&M on February 17. Alabama's last seven games all featured a closing total north of 172, so we're getting a fairly large discount here (especially since the over is 5-2 in those seven games). Let's take a closer look at that first meeting between the Tigers and Tide in November. ShotQuality graded that game as a bottom-3 performance by Alabama's offense this season. The Crimson Tide shot 12-of-32 from two-point range (37.5-percent) and there were 11 missed free throws in the contest. We still saw 162 points in that game. So you had one of Alabama's worst games of the season with a plethora of missed free throws, and we only fell three points shy of clearing this number. The over is 12-2 in Alabama's last 14 games. Clemson was able to hold its first three tournament opponents to 18-percent shooting from three-point range. Surely that can't continue, right?!

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