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(653) Clemson at (654) Alabama

Event:
(653) Clemson at (654) Alabama
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 30, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – Alabama -3.0 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take Alabama (#654)

These two teams met in November in Tuscaloosa.  Alabama shot 34% from the floor, 31% from three point range.  Clemson shot 53% from the floor and 52% from three point range. Bama led by seven in the second half despite the significant shooting percentage disparity, but the Tigers didn’t miss down the stretch, scoring 39 points in the last 12+ minutes of regulation. Brad Brownell’s squad scored on 13 of 18 possessions after they fell behind by seven; putting together a 30-13 run to take control of the game.

That was then, this is now.  Alabama hadn’t seen a team like Clemson when they first met; now the Crimson Tide are battle tested.  ‘Bama’s defensive efficiency numbers for the full season are as weak as any team remaining in the field.  But their defensive numbers improved significantly down the stretch, and here in the NCAA Tournament, they’ve held opponents to a 99.5 defensive efficiency ranking, comparable with teams like Gonzaga, Texas Tech, Oregon, Wisconsin, Xavier or Butler – a good defensive team if not a great one.  And Alabama is as elite as it gets offensively, a team loaded with shooters and scorers; hanging 80+ 13 times in their last 15 games.

Clemson has faced precious little adversity in this tournament thusfar.  In three games, they’ve gotten off to big leads all three times: 30-11 vs New Mexico, 22-14 vs Baylor and 19-8 against Arizona.  In addition, the Tigers have been extraordinarily lucky when it comes to their opponents three point shooting in this tournament; a combined 14-75 (18%) in three games.  ‘Bama has hit 32 three pointers in their three tournament games – all against solid defensive competition -- and they haven’t been prone to slow starts either.  I expect the Tide to punch their ticket to the Final Four with a (relatively) comfortable victory tonight.  Take Alabama.

Line Parameter: 3% at -3.5 or lower, 2% at -4 or higher

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