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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(645) Duke at (646) Houston

Event:
(645) Duke at (646) Houston
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 29, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-114
Play:
4% – Duke +4.5 (-114)
Result:
Win
Analysis

You can go 4.5 anywhere for -120.  Most places are +4.5 -115.  I successfully played against Houston last round in a game they nearly choked away and were fortunate not to lose in overtime

My main criticism of Duke this season has been a lack of toughness on the interior but they have gotten better in this regard and come into play 20th nationally in DE.  Houston's pace wont bother Duke at all since the Blue Devils are more than willing to play in the halfcourt and I think Duke's halfcourt offense right now is good enough to score on Houston's elite defense

Houston is efficient offensively but they have to force turnovers to generate additional possessions.  The Cougars play a low possession slow tempo style and I think the fact Houston shoots just 43.8% from the field is going to catch up with them at some point, potentially here has Duke has limited the turnovers and “mistakes” they were making on a regular basis earlier this year.

Duke has the ability to shoot over this Houston defense, I went to the Baylor/Houston game earlier this season and as soon as the Bears figured out how to generate open looks from three (it look them an entire half and they had to dig out of a huge hole) Baylor was heading to the foul line with 4 seconds left with a chance to win that game.

In a lot of ways this Duke team is a better version of Baylor (elite three point shooting team with slightly better defense and more of an interior threat than the Bears) and I think the Blue Devils can trouble Houston enough to be within a possession and potentially win the game here.

Play on Duke +4.5 (-114) for 4% (or 4 units)

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