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(515) Phoenix Suns at (516) Oklahoma City Thunder

Event:
(515) Phoenix Suns at (516) Oklahoma City Thunder
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
March 29, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-125
Play:
3% – Phoenix Suns -125
Result:
Loss
Analysis

3% Take Phoenix (#515) on the MONEYLINE

My clients and I cashed a wire-2-wire winner with Phoenix plus the points in Denver on Wednesday. Let me start with an excerpt from that write-up:

“The Suns haven’t cared about the regular season all that much.  Tonight’s game is a clear exception to that rule.  The Nuggets bounced Phoenix out of the playoffs last year and won the title that the Suns clearly covet.  I watched the last meeting between these two teams in Denver earlier this month, a game where the Suns built a 22 point lead, went ice-cold in the fourth and recovered to win the game in OT as 8.5 point underdogs; similar to the pointspread range tonight.  The Suns were focused in that ballgame; very much a statement game for the road underdog.  I’m expecting more of the same tonight.”

The Suns have the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA; each and every remaining regular season game coming against a playoff bound opponent.  Head coach Frank Vogel following the win at Denver: “I would say we didn’t have carryover.  It showed up as focus and intensity. We know what’s at stake. We know how many games we have left. We know what the schedule looks like. We still say we remain confident against anybody on the schedule, as illustrated by coming in and beating the champs in their building. So next game up. The competition is fierce. We’re going to have to repeat this and stay at this level to continue to win games.” The urgency for Phoenix right now is very real.

The Thunder are playing their third game in four nights coming off an OT loss at home vs the Rockets; anything BUT fresh this evening.  They’re likely to be without their MVP candidate Shai Gilgeous- Alexander again, listed as doubtful with a quad injury.  They’ve yet to win a game without their superstar on the floor this season, 0-2 so far.  They went 3-6 SU down the stretch last year when Alexander got hurt, but it’s worth noting the three wins: Detroit, San Antonio and Utah, all lottery teams.  Phoenix is ‘bet-on’ right now, OKC is not; plain and simple.  In this ‘short favorite’ pointspread range, I prefer the moneyline.  Take the Suns on the MONEYLINE.

Line Parameter: 3% at -130 or lower, 2% at -131 or higher

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