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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(983) Milwaukee Brewers at (984) New York Mets

Event:
(983) Milwaukee Brewers at (984) New York Mets
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
March 29, 2024 1PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-105
Play:
4% – New York Mets -105 F Peralta (RHP), J Quintana (LHP) Must Start
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Mets (1:40PM ET BSWI, SNY, MLB.TV) – Fantastic result for us on Opening Day as White Sox +1.5 cashes despite the Sox not scoring a single run.  The 1-0 final gives us a 4% MLB winner to kick off the 2024 season and I’ll look to make it 2-0 when the New York Mets finally get their 2024 campaign started against the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field in Flushing, New York. 

I’m not ready to commit to being “high” on the Mets this season but I do think they are undervalued relative to where the market has them.  I’m not high at all on the Brewers, you probably heard me gushing over Craig Counsell and what a huge get I thought that was for the Cubs which means the Brewers lose their manager that’s won this division three out of the last six seasons.  Pat Murphy might end up being a great manager, he was the Brewers bench coach during the entirety of Counsell’s tenure as head coach in Milwaukee so maybe it’s a seamless transition but the coaching change isn’t the only reason I’m hesitant to back the Brew Crew this year.  Milwaukee traded away ace Corbin Burnes and lost closer Devin Williams for at least half the season due to stress fractures in his back.  There’s already rumors of other regulars being on the trade block and #2 prospect Jackson Chourio is going to start the season in the big leagues so this does have more of a rebuild vibe than contender in my opinion. Counsell regularly exceeded Milwaukee’s season win total so the masses are happy to play OVER 77.5 with the thought the Brewers can play .500 ball but I think that’s the ceiling for this team. The bullpen on a good Brewers team was already thin on the back end and now Milwaukee won’t have their “rock” in Williams for at least half a season.  With the Cubs, Cardinals and Reds all projecting to be solid, and some upside on the Pirates roster, the Brewers are the team that might sink to the bottom of the NL Central this season and I’m going to look for spots for that to come to fruition. 

Milwaukee gives the ball to Freddy Peralta, I’ve always liked him as an “upside” guy but now he’s the opening day starter and I’m worried that might be a little much for a guy who has been erratic at times in his career.  Peralta isn’t a stranger to slow starts, he had a really bad stretch from mid-April to mid-May last season and he relies heavily on the strikeout so if he doesn’t have his best command he can be had here. Peralta will walk hitters, he had three or more in five of his first nine starts last season so I don’t think getting pushed back a day and having to pitch in a chilly, windy Citi Field does him any favors here.  He did dominate the Mets in his first start of 2023 but that was in Milwaukee and that was a game where he got run support and never trailed.  All signs point to a win over the Mets today being a more difficult task and, even if he does pitch well, he’s going to need a Brewers bullpen without a closer to see this game out. 

Jose Quintana is the less flashy starting pitcher but he’s a veteran and now that he’s healthy I expect he will contribute for the Mets.  Carlos Mendoza will make his managerial debut in Queens and I do think there will be some juice in the ballpark for a team that gets a clean slate after vastly underachieving in 2023.  Similar to yesterday when we backed Garrett Crochet with the thought process of throwing out last year’s “rehab” season, I’m willing to do the same with Quintana who never reached his normal threshold after missing the first 3.5 months with a rib injury.  By the time Quintana even debuted for the Mets the season was already pretty much over so 2023 was really a lost season and I think his appearances in August/September were more to just get him some reps that he could build on entering the offseason.  If you go back to 2022 you will find a Quintana that was one of the more coveted pieces on the trade market and landed in St Louis where he posted a 2.01 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 12 starts in a pennant race for the Cardinals.  That’s the upside with Quintana, some of the youngsters that got time last year like Francisco Alvarez and Brett Baty give some upside to this roster and I think all of the above make the Mets a play here.  Play on Mets -105 for 4% (or 4 units)

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