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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(201217) AC Milan at (201218) Fiorentina

(201217) AC Milan at (201218) Fiorentina
March 30, 2024 3PM EDT
Play Rating:
3% – REGULATION AC Milan 0.0 (-125)

Fiorentina vs AC Milan
Serie A, Saturday, 3:45pm ET

Play: AC Milan PK
Odds at Time of Release: -125
Line Parameter: Playable to -135

Fiorentina are just day away from the Coppa Italia semi-final against Atalanta on Wednesday, and also have a tough league match on the weekend as they will host AC Milan. Fiorentina are 8th in the Serie A with 43 points (and a match in hand), 2 points behind Napoli, and 4 points behind Atalanta and the top-6 spots that grant tickets to the international competitions next season. They can't really take their eyes off the league but they do have a crucial match coming up and distraction is always an issue. 

Fiorentina have not done well in weekend matches prior to a Cup/Conference League match this season (W4 D5 L4), and 3 of those wins actually came early in the season and in matches prior to group stage matches in the Conference League. But as they are moving deeper into those competitions we've seen them drop more and more points in weekend matches prior to those matches, with Fiorentina winning just 1 of L/8 matches (W1 D4 L3), and that win came against lowly Salernitana.

Now AC Milan are coming to town, who are sitting 2nd in the Serie A with 62 points, 14 points behind Inter Milan, so they can't realistically hope for a title, but also just 3 points above Juventus. Their main goal is to finish inside the top-4 and claim a ticket to the Champions League next season, and right now they have an 11-point cushion. AC Milan have dropped out of the Coppa Italia but they are through to the Europa League quarter-finals where they will face Roma, but until that happens they need all the points they can get. 

AC Milan are in excellent shape right now, having won 5 in a row in all competitions with their offense scoring 12 goals in that span. Fiorentina are in somewhat opposite form, winning just 2 of L/7 in all competitions and also have a crucial match coming up. The odds are set in a way that allows us to take 3u on AC Milan PK at -125 

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