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Pavlos Laguretos

Pavlos Laguretos

(203205) AS Monaco at (203206) FC Metz

Event:
(203205) AS Monaco at (203206) FC Metz
Sport/League:
FL1
Date/Time:
March 30, 2024 12PM EDT
Play Rating:
1%
Odds:
230
Play:
1% – REGULATION Monaco to win by exactly 1 goal +230
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Metz vs Monaco
French Ligue 1, Saturday, 12pm ET

Play: Monaco to win by exactly 1 goal
Odds at Time of Release: +230
Line Parameter: Playable to +200

Monaco are sitting 3rd in the Ligue 1 with 46 points (W13 D7 L6), 1 point behind Brest and 3 points above Lille and Nice. They have a tough schedule coming up with Rennes, Brest, Lille and Lyon, so they need to keep grabbing points in order to stay within the top-3 spots that grant Champions League tickets for next season. 

Metz are sitting at the 17th spot with 23 points (W6 D5 L16), 3 points below Lorient, Montpellier and the relegation zone. They play against Brest and Lens next, two very tough matches, so if they want to get out of the relegation zone they need to win at least one of these matches. 

Monaco have 25 actual points on the road (W7 D4 L2) but they have 19 expected points, 6 more than they should have. 
Metz are kind of the opposite at home with 9 actual points (W2 D3 L7), but 15 expected points, 6 fewer than they should have. Monaco beat Metz by 2-1 at home in the reverse fixture and also won both matches against them last season. They are unbeaten in L/6 against Metz (W5 D1). 

Metz have kept just 2 clean sheets in 12 home matches (17%). They have scored in 4 of L/5 home matches. Monaco have kept just 2 clean sheets in 13 away matches (15%). Monaco have kept just 2 clean sheets in L/15 matches in all competitions, with a 12-3 run to the Both Teams to Score. 

Monaco are -160 favourites, Metz are at +400 with the Draw at +330 and right off the bat, away favourites at -160 in the Ligue 1 simply do not exist (unless your name is PSG). The only two times where Monaco were -160 favourites (or close to that) they didn't win, playing for Draws against Le Havre and Lorient. The Asian Spread is set at 1, and Metz have lost ALL 7 home matches by exactly 1 goal. Each of Monaco's L/5 away wins came by exactly 1 goal. 

I think the odds are not indicative of the dangers of this match, as Monaco are indeed looking for a win to stay inside the top-3 but Metz are also looking for a win that could potentially push them outside the relegation zone. 

Metz might have the 4th worst xG difference/game at home with -0.10, but that number is actually not that bad, especially if we compare it to Monaco's -0.05 xG Difference/game on the road. These numbers don't justify Monaco being a -1 favourite in this match. 

Metz will not give up that easily, they have stood their ground against teams like Monaco at home, having not lost a single match by 2 goals or more, so we can definitely make a case for Metz +1 here, which looks like a push at the worst case scenario. Both Teams to Score might also be a good option here but at -135 I don't want to get involved. 

The line moved since I made this write-up a few hours ago, and the Asian Spread is now set at 0.75 and I don't like that. We are pivoting to a prop: take 1u on Monaco to win by exactly 1 goal +235 Draftkings

Correct Score Prediction: Monaco win by 2-1 (+700)
 

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