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Andrew McInnis

Andrew McInnis

(927) Boston Red Sox at (928) Seattle Mariners

Event:
(927) Boston Red Sox at (928) Seattle Mariners
Sport/League:
MLB
Date/Time:
March 28, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
4%
Odds:
-145
Play:
4% – (927) Boston Red Sox at (928) Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners Total Over 3.5 (-145) B Bello (RHP), L Castillo (RHP) Must Start
Result:
Win
Analysis

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Seattle Mariners Total SEA Mariners - Over 3.5 (-145) B Bello (RHP), L Castillo (RHP) Must Start…(4%)

As I've mentioned many times in writing and analysis, team totals are my favourite bet in baseball, and I love how they create a better price on your wager. The Mariners are currently -175 favourites in this ball game tomorrow, but asking them to reach the four-run mark bumps their odds down by .30, taking us to -145. AND they don't even have to win the game. 

The Red Sox are projected to once again be bottom feeders in one of the strongest divisions in baseball, the A.L. East. Boston finished the 2023 season with a 78-84 record and an even 39-42 record both at home and on the road. The Mariners finished the 2023 season with an 88-74 record, going 45-36 at home. 

The Mariners currently project to have a top-10 roster. Last year, they were highly competitive and played meaningful baseball until the season ended. In 2023, the Mariners were seventh in baseruns and ninth in run differential. With several moves made in the offseason, Seattle wasn't shy about spending the payroll and making some trades, creating a deep roster with dangerous hitters. 

The Mariners pitching rotation is undoubtedly one of their bright spots, but I'm much more comfortable taking them on their team total and reaching four runs compared to the -175 price tag of the full game money line. 

Brayan Bello starts for the Red Sox, and overall, I'm looking to fade the Sox rotation & bullpen this year as I am not high on either of them. Bello posted a 4.24 ERA in 2023, along with a 1.34 WHIP. Bello gave up at least three runs in six straight games to close out his year last season and didn't seem to go past six innings in many of his appearances. In spring training this year, Bello pitched 18.1 innings, holding an ERA of 3.93, giving up 18 hits and eight earned runs. 

The Mariners should come out with a bang on Thursday in the last game of the day and flex the muscles of their deep squad against a significantly below-average Boston pitching staff. 

MARINERS TT O3.5 (-145)

 

 

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