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(565) Phoenix Suns at (566) Denver Nuggets

Event:
(565) Phoenix Suns at (566) Denver Nuggets
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
March 27, 2024 10PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – Phoenix Suns +7.5 (-110)
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take Phoenix (#565)

The Suns haven’t cared about the regular season all that much.  Tonight’s game is a clear exception to that rule.  The Nuggets bounced Phoenix out of the playoffs last year and won the title that the Suns clearly covet.  I watched the last meeting between these two teams in Denver earlier this month, a game where the Suns built a 22 point lead, went ice-cold in the fourth and recovered to win the game in OT as 8.5 point underdogs; similar to the pointspread range tonight.  The Suns were focused in that ballgame; very much a statement game for the road underdog. I’m expecting more of the same tonight.

Phoenix enters tonight’s game coming off a bad loss to San Antonio without Victor Wembanyama on Monday. Head coach Frank Vogel was not amused: “It’s unacceptable to lose that game for our guys. all said the right things, we all did the right preparation to come in, but we didn’t play with the necessary focus and disposition throughout I would say the first half. You give a team like that life and that’s how the NBA works.”  Bradley Beal after the game: “Disappointed.  We definitely laid an egg….They came out aggressive, like coach told us they would, and we didn’t respond.”  It’s clearly a bounceback game for the road underdogs here, against an opponent that piques their interest significantly.

The Nuggets are 15-2 SU since the All Star Break and they’ve moved into first place in the West, just like where they were last year.  That said, Denver’s #1 concern down the stretch is their health.  Nikola Jokic is dealing with a bad back, Jamal Murray a bad ankle, Aaron Gordon a foot injury and Michael Porter Jr has been sick; four of their five starters dealing with ‘issues’ this evening (if they all play).  Expect a battle, not a blowout – too many points for this ‘live’ underdog.  Take the Suns.

Line Parameter: 3% at +6 or higher, 2% at +5.5 or lower

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