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Adam Trigger

Adam Trigger

(633) San Diego State at (634) Connecticut

Event:
(633) San Diego State at (634) Connecticut
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 28, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-110
Play:
5% – San Diego State +11.0 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

San Diego State (7:39PM ET TBS) – Extremely disappointing second half by Fairfield but Seattle U made anything and everything which is something we have run into far too often the past week or so.  We give back Monday’s winner (plus an extra unit) and I will now turn my focus to the Sweet 16 where I will make what could be my final 5% MAX BET of the CBB season when the #5 seed San Diego State Aztecs take on the #1 seed Connecticut Huskies at the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts.

Two weeks ago, I cashed a 5% MAX BET playing against UCONN with St John’s covering a similar number.  A big part of my reasoning there was I felt like the matchup was serviceable for St John’s and the Red Storm had experience playing against UCONN which is something that also applies to San Diego State here.  This is a rematch of last year’s National Championship game, UCONN won that game 76-59 in what will go down in history as a dominant performance but if San Diego State shoots it even remotely well the Aztecs probably stay within 11. The rebounding battle was even, neither team shot the ball particularly well, but UCONN lived at the foul line and the Huskies 24 for 27 from the charity stripe was the main difference in a very physical, defensive game.  The fact San Diego State got to experience UCONN at their peak means the Aztecs have already taken UCONN’s best shot and can learn/adjust from it.  San Diego State is one of the few teams nationally that has the defensive prowess to guard UCONN (8th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom) and it’s worth pointing out the Aztecs defended well in last year’s title game but committed far too many fouls which is something I think can be improved upon.  It’s also worth noting that UCONN, while still a solid free throw shooting team, is down a couple percentage points from last year’s squad.  It would take a monster effort from San Diego State to pull the outright upset, but I think keeping the final within single digits is a very likely outcome here.

Since cashing a 5% playing against UCONN, the Huskies have gone on to win and cover all three of their games, but I think this will be their toughest test of the postseason by far.  Marquette and Northwestern were both shorthanded, Stetson never really posed a threat and all three of those teams were forced to play from behind and try to dig out of a big hole which is extremely tough to do against UCONN.  I’m going to hope San Diego State gets off to a quick start here, the Aztecs led last year’s title game briefly and come into this game off a tremendous effort against Yale.  While it’s on a much smaller scale, Yale is a very good veteran defensive team (who was just able to defend Auburn’s elite offense) and San Diego State hit 13 threes while shooting 52.7% from the field on their way to a blowout win.  Last year San Diego State shot an abysmal 32.2 percent against UCONN but there’s more offensive ability on this Aztecs roster. Last year San Diego State’s putrid offense was all about trying to play through Matt Bradley while this season San Diego State has a workman like offensive approach that revolves around getting the ball inside to Jaedon LeDee and crashing the glass.  LeDee has now scored 20+ in six straight games and has his season average up to 21 points per game with a large number of those points coming in the paint or at the free throw line.  It’s still going to take a solid game plan and a big effort from LeDee but the likelihood of San Diego State being able to execute is far greater in this matchup (in my opinion) than last year’s final. 

I think this is a better matchup for a better San Diego State team so under that pretense I think we are getting tremendous line value as San Diego State was just a +7.5. underdog in last year’s title game.  I don’t think there’s a guarantee UCONN wins here, if the Huskies do I think they are due for a little scare and the Aztecs certainly have the makeup and pedigree of a team that can give them one.  Play on San Diego State +11 (-110) for 5% (or 5 units)

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