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Jeff Michaels

Jeff Michaels

2 Team ML Parlay

Event:
2 Team ML Parlay
Sport/League:
CBB
Date/Time:
March 28, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-128
Play:
5% – 2 Team ML Parlay (-128) - UConn & UNC
Result:
Win
Analysis

5% 2 Team ML Parlay (-128) — Connecticut (-625) & North Carolina (-185) — 5% up to (-140) 

  • Connecticut (-625) over San Diego St. — 
    • This is obviously a little bit of the safer route with UConn. While I do think right now, they are the best team left in the tournament, this is an interesting game being a rematch from last years championship game. I would be hesitant to lay this big number with UConn, but I still have a lot of confidence in this Huskies team. 
    • When San Diego State has possession, there is no question that UConn has the advantage. San Diego State has really struggled when it comes to the long ball, shooting just 31.8% as a unit from deep (283rd). They have put up most of their points from the charity stripe and 2PT range. Unlucky for them, not only is Connecticut the #4 team in the nation in 2PT% allowed TY (43.5%) but in the L3 games they have significantly improved the number of FT attempts they have allowed (13.67). 
    • Plus, San Diego State’s SOS numbers are a little deceiving. They have been tested this year, which is another reason I was hesitant to lay the big number with the favorite, but they haven’t been tested to this level. When you look at KenPom’s rankings, San Diego State ranks 20th in the nation in opposing offensive SOS, facing the 20th hardest schedule in terms of opposing offenses. Yet, at the same time, they have played just 2 teams in KenPom’s Top 30 Offensive units. They haven’t been tested with the “best of the best”, they just have consistently seen quality opponents all year. 
    • San Diego State is just 2-6 SUATS as a DOG TY, but have gone 0-5 SUATS in the L5!!
  • North Carolina (-185) over Alabama — 
    • When you just look at this game at the basics, North Carolina has played one of the hardest schedules this season, are inside the top 10 in the country when it comes to D1 experience, and they are just flat out a dangerous team on both sides of the ball. 
    • The two ways I have been looking at these teams during the tournament is their season rankings, and their rankings when it comes to games played on A/N sites. Not only does North Carolina rank in the top 20 in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season … but they are also the 4th best defense in the country on the road in those rankings. 
    • I know that Alabama’s offense is “elite” too. Yet, I really just think their offense has the ability to be explosive, and we haven’t seen that ability against the top tier teams this season. They are just 3-10 SU vs. KenPom top 30 offenses (lost L4 by 15 PPG), as well as just 1-5 SU vs. Top 30 defenses. 
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