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(539) Oklahoma City Thunder at (540) New Orleans Pelicans

Event:
(539) Oklahoma City Thunder at (540) New Orleans Pelicans
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
March 26, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-115
Play:
3% – Oklahoma City Thunder -115
Result:
Win
Analysis

3% Take Oklahoma City on the Moneyline (#539)

OKC has had plenty of success beating New Orleans in New Orleans: 3-0 SU and ATS over the past two seasons.   In the last TEN meetings between these two teams since 2021, the Pelicans haven’t won a single game by more than four points. 

OKC is coming off a bad, ‘no-show’ loss at Milwaukee over the weekend.  Head coach Mark Daigneault, after the 25 point defeat:  “I thought as a team, just our overall pace and sharpness on offense wasn't where it needed to be.”  The Thunder have been $$ off a loss: 4-0 SU in their last four tries, including SU wins over Dallas, Sacramento and Phoenix, all playoff teams.  And the Thunder haven’t lost back-2-back road games since before the All Star Break; a ‘bet-on’ team off a subpar showing.

New Orleans just concluded a strong road trip with back-2-back wins over the Heat and Pistons. In their first game back home after their last winning road trip earlier this month (3-0 SU and ATS), the Pelicans lost by 21 as 5.5 point favorites against the Cavaliers.  Following their previous successful road trip (winning three our of four heading into the All Star Break), they never sniffed a pointspread cover in a tight win against the lowly Wizards.   Earlier this season following a 3-0 SU/ATS road trip, they lost to as favorites to Memphis in their first game home.   They pulled an upset at Minnesota, then returned home to get blown out by the Clippers.   This is a clear pattern for Willie Green’s team, worth betting tonight.   In this pointspread range, the moneyline is the mathematically superior way to make the wager.  Take the Thunder on the Moneyline.

Line Parameter: 3% at -120 or lower, 2% at -121 or higher

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