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(639) Gonzaga at (640) Purdue

(639) Gonzaga at (640) Purdue
March 29, 2024 7PM EDT
Play Rating:
2% – Purdue -5.0 (-110)

2% Take Purdue (#640)

My clients and I cashed a winner with Purdue laying the big points in the first round, and the Boilermakers were here in the ‘Free Play’ section for their Round 2 annihilation of Utah State.  I have no hesitation coming right back with the Boilermakers again on Friday as chalk against Gonzaga; a team they’re primed to beat by margin in a betting marketplace that still doesn’t fully trust Matt Painter’s squad.

Last year, Purdue became only the second #1 seed to lose their opening round game to a #16 seed in NCAA Tournament history.  The previous team that lost as a #1 seed in the first round, Virginia, went on to win the national title the following year – focused, motivated and talented. Purdue has a legitimate chance to write a similar narrative in 2024; and they’re a far better and more confident team in 2024 compared to 2023.

The Zags have feasted on the weak to get here – neither McNeese State nor a banged-up Kansas team with their coach already looking forward to next season were capable of giving the Zags a real challenge.  But when we look at Gonzaga’s full season results, one thing stands out clearly – this team does not respond well to elite level defenses.  Their only losses by margin all year came against St Mary’s, UConn, San Diego State and the same Purdue team they’ll face on Friday Night. All four of those teams are Top 20 in defensive efficiency based on the KenPom metrics; a problematic matchup once again for the Zags on Friday Night.  Lay it or don’t play it!  Take Purdue.

Line Parameter: 2% at -5 or lower, 1% at -5.5 or higher

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