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Andy Lang

Andy Lang

UFC Parlay

Event:
UFC Parlay
Sport/League:
MMA
Date/Time:
March 30, 2024 8PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-156
Play:
5% – Julio Arce -455 ML (v Herbert Burns) + Bruno Silva -285 ML (v Chris Weidman)...Final Price -156
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Bruno Silva -285 v Chris Weidman +230

I can’t believe Weidman is still fighting, but there’s no world I’m betting on him, and it’s Silva or nothing in this one.  Silva has lost four out of five, but you go through each fight and his performances aren’t as bad as the record.  One loss was a decision to Alex Pereira, one loss was to Meerschaert where he was sick in the fight, and then he beat Brad Taveres.  After that, he lost to Branden Allen, who’s fighting in main events now, and then he lost to Shara Magomedov who made his UFC debut, and it looks like Magamedov is a legit UFC fighter with insane kicks and volume.  Outside of the Merschaert fight where he was sick, I haven’t seen a terrible performance from him, and all those losses are to guys who would easily beat this version of Chris Weidman who is past his prime, and his body is just really beat up at this point.  His last fight against Brad Taveres was almost embarrassing as Weidman was barely hobbling around the ring, and despite the very low volume, Tavares easily won.  Weidman is a shot fighter at this point, and this event is in New Jersey, which is where Weidman is from so this is smelling like a retirement fight for him.  Silva is much healthier, faster, and once he starts landing leg kicks, Weidman will be severely compromised.  Silva should easily win, and don’t be surprised if this is Weidman’s last fight.

 

Julio Arce -455 v Herbert Burns +345

I couldn't figure out why Herbert Burns is getting another fight based on how terrible he's been the last few times we've seen him, but Arce is coming off an ACL injury over a year ago and this is a really nice fight to ease back in to the UFC scene.  Burns has been finished in his last couple of fights due to injury and exhaustion, and he has looked absolutely horrible.  Before those losses, he beat Evan Dunham who doesn’t fight anymore, and landed a lucky knee to KO Landwehr, but Burns is coming off an injury as well, and he's not a UFC caliber fighter at this point.  Arce is a legit fighter who is 2-2 in his last four fights, but his losses are to Montel Jackson and Song Yadong so no shame in those fights.  In Burns's last fight, he tried to grapple and submit Bill Algeo, but after 2.5 minutes he was exhausted and could barely get up off the mat, and he was promptly finished in the 2nd round.  Arce has cardio, and all he has to do is not get randomly finished early on and Burns won’t have much offense left after a few minutes.  Arce is the play.

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