MLB #5. This was a 4% originally, downgrades to a 3%. 3% is the bet size placed. Its confusing that it looked like it might have been a 2p intent (confusing release. This remains a 3% release because the write up indicates a 3% release. There is a notation at the bottom that reduced this play to 2% that I was unaware was there. I did not write this up, so sorry for the confusion )
3% MIA ML (-116)
Going to have 3 total plays on this game: under 11, MIA ML, and a player prop.
This one lights up the model and passes the eye test. The model has a final projected score of 5.9-4.5.
Garrett has a xFIP and SIERA that both indicate his 4.60 ERA is elevated and should be coming down over the next few games. His numbers on the road are much better than at home and he is facing an offense that is slumping terribly vs LHP.
MIA has the bullpen advantage by a full couple runs per 9 and has been solid vs LHP.
This initially rated as a 3% play but we are backing down a percentage point for two factors: Arraez is out and this is Garrett's fist start at Coors.
Good to -130
heritage
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