Recent Play Details

4% Take Miami (#542)

Here’s one NBA Playoff lesson that I’ve learned in my 25 years betting here in Las Vegas:  When a series is mispriced from Game 1, the betting markets don’t make the appropriate reactions as the series progresses.  This certainly looks to be that sort of series, with the Celtics priced at 6:1 favorites prior to Game 1.  ESPN’s analytics showed the Heat with a 3% chance to win the series, compared to a 97% chance for Boston.

Clearly, things have not played out as the betting markets thought they would prior to the series.  There’s nothing fraudulent about Miami’s 2-0 series lead after winning the first two games in Boston – the Heat were the better team in both games.  The pre-series numbers were not indicative of current form for either squad.  And yet the pointspreads, game by game, continue to be set based on “full season” stats.

Here’s a quick excerpt from what I wrote about Denver – LA yesterday, backing the Nuggets in Game 3 on the road: “The regular season ended 100 years ago for these players and coaches – the regular season is a loooong way in the rear view mirror.  With a #7 and an #8 seed still standing here in the postseason, clearly, this year’s regular season results aren’t a particularly good predictor of postseason play.  At this stage, I couldn’t care less about which teams were successful winning road games months ago.”  But the betting markets haven’t forgotten about the regular season – that’s where these pointspreads come from; a full season’s worth of analytics. 

Since the start of the playoffs – more than five weeks ago – Miami has been the better of these two teams. The Bucks were the best team in the NBA; the team to beat in the playoffs.  Miami dominated them in five games. They dispatched of the Knicks easily as well.  Meanwhile, the Celtics got tested in Round 1 by a mediocre Atlanta squad.  They also got tested in Round 2 by a flawed Philadelphia team --- it was Miami getting extra rest, not Boston, as those series concluded. Miami was the better team in Game 1.  They were the better team in Game 2.  Now they’re home dogs in Game 3?  I’m not buying it, not even for a minute.

The Heat are 9-2 ATS in their last eleven games, consistently undervalued.  They clearly have the superior coach.  Miami has been playing in, and winning, close games all year, while the Celtics have struggled throughout the postseason closing out tight victories.  That matters – A LOT – in this pointspread range tonight.  Much like they were in Games 1 and 2, the Heat are ‘live dogs’ again in Game 3.  Take the Heat

Line Parameter: 4% at +3 or higher, 3% at +2.5 or lower