Recent Play Details

Liberty (9PM ET ESPN2) – A busy Tuesday rolls on with another move in the NIT as the Liberty Flames take on the Villanova Wildcats at Liberty Arena in Lynchburg, Virginia.

As my group chat can attest to I was absolutely furious at myself for not getting this play out before the move yesterday.  I got the text that Villanova might be short handed here but as I was logging in to lock this play in this line jumped as high as -4 some places!  I typically pass on a play (no matter how much I love it) if I miss the number but the betting public has gotten involved and bet this back down what I consider to be a very playable -3.  Of course I would love to have Liberty -2 but if rumors are true that Villanova will be without Justin Moore AND/OR Cam Whitmore here I make Liberty more like -5 in a true home game.  This game will be at Liberty Arena, it’s a brand new 4,000 seat facility that opened a year or two ago and is pretty much guaranteed to be at capacity here as Liberty rarely gets to host a big name team from the Big East. Even if Villanova was at full strength this is a Wildcats team that’s accustomed to playing for Final Fours so I can’t see them being highly motivated in the NIT.  My guess here is Villanova uses this opportunity to get younger guys experience while Liberty should be highly motivated in a high profile spot in front of their home fans and if the Flames do win here there’s a high probability that it’s by at least three.

Liberty had aspirations of a NCAA Tournament berth and it was probably disappointing to fall short but I don’t think that makes the Flames less motivated here.  Liberty has never been to the NIT so I think not only getting to play postseason basketball but to get a home game on National TV against a “name” like Villanova has to be a huge motivator for this Flames team.  I also think this is a decent matchup for Liberty, Villanova has had issues defensively this season and I think the Wildcats struggle to defend Darius McGhee and a Flames offense that moves the ball extremely well and has one of the more efficient mid-majors on offense all season.  McGhee is ridiculous, he averages 22.5 points per game and it's a shame we won’t get to see him play in the NCAA Tournament this season because pound for pound he’s one of the best scorers in the country.  In a normal game I’d be concerned with Villanova keying on McGhee but I truly believe Villanova is just going to play this straight up and see if one of their young guys can guard him.  McGhee leads a Liberty offense that is 3rd in assist/turnover ratio nationally and 27th in the country in field goal percentage so this is a Flames team that moves the ball AND takes/makes good shots.  Liberty’s issues are giving up equally good looks but Villanova could be without two of their best scorers here so I just don’t see the Wildcats being able to fully take advantage of this and if Villanova isn’t making shots they aren’t keeping pace with Liberty on their home floor here.

I think this game comes down to who makes more shots (neither defense is elite) and everything points to that being Liberty.  From a motivation/effort standpoint Liberty is the obvious choice here and I’m always going to trust a shot making team in their home gym more than someone playing in a certain building (Villanova) for the first time. Villanova doesn’t move the ball particularly well, the Wildcats rely heavily on Eric Dixon scoring in the paint and guys like Caleb Daniels, Justin Moore and Cam Whitmore creating off the dribble but Villanova might be without Whitmore AND Moore here.  Villanova can get to the free throw line, where they hit at the highest rate in the country, but this is going to be a frenzied environment in favor of Liberty and I’ll be SHOCKED if Villanova is the team getting the calls here.  

This feels like a home run spot for Liberty, if Villanova ends up being short handed Liberty will also be the better team/deserving favorite and I think the Flames get their consolation (for not making the NCAA Tournament) with a runaway win over a big name here.  Play on Liberty -3 (-110) for 4% (or 4 units)