3% Take Indiana (#561)

The Pacers haven’t just been ‘good’ off a loss.  Since the first week of March, Indiana has suffered ten losses.  Following each of their first nine defeats, they bounced back with a SU/ATS win in their next game, including their Game 2 Blowout win at Milwaukee in the first round.  That 9-0 SU/ATS run didn’t come against bottom feeders either – they beat the Thunder by 14, the Lakers by 19, the Clippers by 17, the Magic by 14, the Mavs by 17, the Pelicans by 9…and these same New York Knickerbockers at Madison Square Garden by 14. Indiana off a loss = ‘bet-on’ until proven otherwise.

The Knicks have no depth whatsoever at this stage of the season.  Four of their five starters played 42+ minutes in Game 1.  Center Mitchell Robinson is hurt again, leaving Miles McBride as the only consistent contributor off the bench.  On the heels of a regular season where Tom Thibodeau, true to form, played his starters major minutes all year long; playing without any additional rest, I’m expecting some tired legs from New York as this series progresses. Indiana, under Rick Carlisle, is still going nine deep; the fresher team today.  The Pacers 46-3 edge in bench points from Game 1 is likely to carry over into Game 2 and beyond.

The Pacers second half defense in Game 1 wasn’t pretty, allowing 65% shooting (26-40), including 64% (7 of 11) from three point range.  This defense was notably better over the second half of the season and they controlled the flow against the Bucks – the Pacers have a MUCH better defensive game in them than the one we just saw.

Indiana’s quotes?  Hungry and focused.  Tyrese Halliburton: "[This] is everything I've ever asked for……The world ain't ending. We lost one game. I understand that we have an opportunity to get another one tomorrow and go home 1-1, so I'm not hitting a panic button or alarm or anything."  Bench stud TJ McConnell: “Playing in an arena like this, having it come down to the last couple of possessions on the road in the playoffs, what more can you ask for?  The ball didn’t bounce our way. We just got to adjust and fix some things.” Much like we saw in Game 1, bettors should expect a battle tonight, not a blowout.  Take the Pacers.

Line Parameter: 3% at +4 or higher, 2% at +3.5 or lower