3% Cleveland Cavaliers (+11.5) over Boston Celtics — 

While I am not 100% confident that my Cavaliers are going to come away with a win in this opening game of the series, I do think this number started out WAY to high. Cleveland had their issues on the road in the last series, but they have had Boston’s number in recent years (at least ATS) and they have actually played better at the Gardens. The Cavaliers are 6-3-1 ATS vs. Boston in the L3Y, including 3-1-1 ATS @ Boston. 

Their defense has continued to play impressively and at a higher level than Miami was. Teams that are playing game 1 of a series (not round 1) as a DD D are 5-3 ATS in the L8 opportunities and this is just the 2nd time this season that Cleveland has been a DD Dog. 

The Cavaliers are 10-4 ATS as a DOG of 5.5 or more points this season, including an ATS win in their only game as a DD D vs. Boston earlier in the year. Cleveland is also 20-10 ATS TY vs. teams putting up 116+ PPG on the season, holding them to just 111. 

I do think Cleveland has the big man advantage ESPECIALLY if Jarrett Allen makes his way back into the lineup, and without Porzingis that gives them an even bigger advantage in the paint. I do think Cleveland has the ability to match up with this Boston team and at least keep this game close in a defensive battle.