Pelicans vs Warriors Predictions, Picks and Odds

Seven straight wins have the Bay Area feeling like it is a decade ago again, but has the betting market gotten carried away? This Pelicans vs Warriors prediction tackles a Monday matchup where Golden State is laying 9.5 points to a New Orleans team playing the second leg of a back-to-back. Just eight days ago, the Warriors were only a 1.5-point home favorite against the Clippers, and they laid only 4.5 at home to Memphis.

Now they are being asked to win by double digits against the Pelicans, a team that held a lead late in the third quarter of its last game. That kind of number deserves a closer look before you bet. Browse our full collection of NBA predictions, then read on for the complete breakdown.

Quick Picks and Prediction for Pelicans vs Warriors

Spread Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +9.5
Total Pick: Under 232.5
Projected Final Score: Warriors 116, Pelicans 110

Odds and Line Movement for Pelicans vs Warriors

The spread opened at Golden State -9.5, dipped to -8.5 twice, and has returned to -9.5. The total has toggled between 231.5 and 232.5 all morning, with nearly all of the public money landing on the Over. Stay on top of every move with our live odds.

Opening Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New Orleans Pelicans	+9½ (-110)	Over 232½ (-105)
Golden State Warriors	-9½ (-110)	Under 232½ (-115)

Current Odds

Team	Spread	Total
New Orleans Pelicans	+9½ (-110)	Over 232½ (-105)
Golden State Warriors	-9½ (-110)	Under 232½ (-115)

Line Movement – Spread

Date	New Orleans	Golden State
11/09	+9½ (-110)	-9½ (-110)
11/09	+9½ (-118)	-9½ (-102)
11/09	+8½ (-102)	-8½ (-119)
11/09	+9½ (-116)	-9½ (-105)
11/09	+8½ (-104)	-8½ (-116)
11/08	+9½ (-110)	-9½ (-110)

Line Movement – Total

Date	Over	Under
11/09	232½ (-105)	232½ (-115)
11/09	231½ (-115)	231½ (-105)
11/09	232½ (-106)	232½ (-115)
11/09	231½ (-115)	231½ (-105)
11/09	231½ (-110)	231½ (-110)
11/09	231½ (-115)	231½ (-105)
11/09	232½ (-105)	232½ (-115)
11/09	231½ (-115)	231½ (-105)
11/09	232½ (-105)	232½ (-115)
11/09	231½ (-115)	231½ (-105)
11/09	232½ (-105)	232½ (-115)

Pelicans vs Warriors Key Matchups and Handicap

Warriors Riding a Seven-Game Win Streak

Most of the country changed its clocks last week, but Golden State seemingly changed the whole calendar. The Warriors have won seven straight games, reminding the Bay Area of what Steve Kerr’s teams looked like a decade ago. There is no denying how impressive this run has been, and Golden State enters Monday with plenty of confidence and momentum.

Steph Curry Leads Golden State’s Surge

Steph Curry continues to drive the winning streak. He finished with 41 points on just 19 field goal attempts in Saturday’s win over the Magic, an extraordinarily efficient performance that shows why the Warriors are so dangerous when he gets rolling. Any game plan against Golden State starts with slowing Curry, and that will be the top priority for New Orleans.

Pelicans on the Back End of a Back-to-Back

New Orleans arrives on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Clippers in Los Angeles on Sunday. The loss was the Pelicans’ second straight, snapping the momentum from a four-game winning streak. The fatigue factor is real, but New Orleans managed its minutes carefully on Sunday. The Pelicans made a concentrated effort to rotate the lineup, as no player logged more than 31 minutes and 13 players saw the court. That approach should leave the key contributors fresher than a typical back-to-back scenario would suggest.

NOP Performance Better Than the Final Score

The 139-123 final score against the Clippers was probably a little flattering for LA. New Orleans was actually leading that game with under three minutes remaining in the third quarter before it slipped away. That context matters, because the Pelicans were competitive for most of the night against a quality opponent while deliberately spreading out minutes.

Golden State Spread Inflation

The biggest handicapping angle here is the number itself. Just eight days ago, Golden State was only a 1.5-point home favorite against the Clippers. The Warriors also laid just 4.5 points at home to Memphis. Now they are laying 9.5 to New Orleans, more than twice the Memphis number. Credit Golden State for what it has accomplished, but a spread flirting with double digits is very difficult to justify, and the market appears to be overreacting to the winning streak.

Pelicans vs Warriors Head-to-Head History

Golden State was on a six-game winning streak in this Western Conference series before New Orleans won the last meeting in February. The totals history is just as notable, as five of the last six meetings have stayed under the total. The Pelicans have averaged only 101.2 points per game in those contests, a key data point for anyone considering the Over at this inflated number.

Betting Trends: NOP vs GSW

Golden State has won seven straight games.
New Orleans has lost two straight after a four-game winning streak.
Golden State won six straight meetings in this series before New Orleans won the last matchup in February.
Five of the last six meetings between these teams have gone under the total.
New Orleans has averaged 101.2 points per game in those last six meetings.
Golden State was a 1.5-point home favorite against the Clippers eight days ago and a 4.5-point home favorite against Memphis.
The spread opened at Golden State -9.5, dipped to -8.5, and returned to -9.5.
The latest public spread numbers show 57% of the money on Golden State and 50% of the tickets on New Orleans.
The total has moved between 231.5 and 232.5, with 99% of the money on the Over.

Key Injuries and Notes: NOP vs GSW

New Orleans: Playing the second leg of a back-to-back after a 139-123 loss to the Clippers on Sunday.
Rotation Note: No Pelicans player logged more than 31 minutes on Sunday, and 13 players saw the court.
Golden State: Coming off a win over the Magic in which Steph Curry scored 41 points on 19 field goal attempts.
Series Note: New Orleans won the most recent meeting in February.

ATS and Total Picks for New Orleans vs Golden State

Spread Pick: New Orleans Pelicans +9.5

The Warriors deserve credit for their hot start, but this spread has been stretched too far. Golden State laid just 1.5 points to the Clippers and 4.5 points to Memphis in recent home games, so asking it to beat New Orleans by double digits is a significant overreaction. The Pelicans managed their minutes well on Sunday and were leading late in the third quarter against the Clippers, which suggests they have enough to stay inside this number.

Moneyline Pick: Golden State Warriors

Golden State remains the more likely winner given its seven-game winning streak and Curry’s elite form. The value, however, lies in taking the points rather than laying them.

Total Pick: Under 232.5

Five of the last six meetings in this series have gone under, and New Orleans has averaged just 101.2 points per game in those contests. With 99% of the public money on the Over, the number is inflated, and a Pelicans team on the second night of a back-to-back may struggle to keep pace offensively.

Pelicans vs Warriors Best Bets

Best Bet: New Orleans Pelicans +9.5 (-110)
Total Bet: Under 232.5 (-115)
Key Edge: A spread more than double what Golden State laid at home against Memphis
Market Signal: 99% of the total money on the Over despite five unders in the last six meetings

Final Score Prediction for Pelicans vs Warriors

Golden State should extend its winning streak behind another strong night from Curry, but New Orleans has enough depth and rest management to keep this one competitive. Expect the Warriors to win while the Pelicans stay inside the number and the series trend toward lower scoring continues.