UFC 318: Holloway vs Poirier Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds July 19

UFC 318 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 318 picks and predictions for July 19 with the main event headlined by Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier in a lightweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA.

Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier: UFC 318 Main Event

Saturday, July 19	UFC 318 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Max Holloway -130 vs Dustin Poirier +110
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -160 / Under +125)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Smoothie King Center in New Orleans, LA
TV:	PPV

Before You Read UFC 318 Predictions… Get $15 FREE towards all expert picks – including UFC 318 & More

UFC 318 Main Event: Max Holloway vs Dustin Poirier

First off, I know Dustin is 2-0 against Max, but I don’t care. The fights were in 2019 and 2012. Throw them out the window. This is Poirier’s retirement fight, and these normally don’t go well for the retiring fighter.

These guys are going to war, this could be a fight for the ages, and honestly I don’t really care about their recent fights as Max lost to maybe the best fighter on the planet, and Dustin lost to the other best fighter on the planet.

I lean Holloway here because of the volume and distance I think he will display. Dustin has good power, but I don’t know if he can get inside of the jabs and boxing of Max.

I go back to the Gaethje fight in 2023 where Gaethje knocked out Poirier, and I thought Dustin was just a bit slower to react to the striking and he got caught with the big head kick when he didn’t react in time.

Since then, he beat Saint Denis, but was getting beat in the first round, and got lucky that Denis gassed in the second.

Then he put on a good display against Makhachev, but Makhachev isn’t a striker, and Poirier ended up getting submitted.

Holloway had some success on the feet against Topuria, which is impressive, but he got taken down a couple times so he’s vulnerable there, but that’s not Dustin’s game.

The lean is to Holloway, but I’m not going to bet it as I just want to be a fan and watch Poirier’s last fight with no money on it. I don’t see a lot of value betting either side.

UFC 318 Predictions

Roman Kopylov -255 vs Paulo Costa +215

I wouldn’t be in a hurry to bet on Kopylov in this one. I bet against Costa in his last fight against Strickland, and even though the bet won, Costa showed a lot of heart, and much improved cardio and fight IQ.

Kopylov has improved immensely over the last few years, and he has KO power, but Costa went the distance against Strickland and Whittaker so he’s durable.

Kopylov has good speed, but he’s hittable, and his cardio can be an issue. I think Costa makes this close on the feet, I expect it to go the distance. To go the distance is the best bet for me in this one, for the side is Costa or pass.

Kevin Holland -450 vs Daniel Rodriguez +350

What a great matchup for Holland here. Holland fought in early June, but absorbed no damage in his easy win against Luque, and that’s 2 great performances in a row for him. His striking has looked really on point, and he can submit anyone at any point.

D-Rod is an aging fighter who doesn’t have much speed, and he’s getting a lot of credit for beating Ponzinibbio in his last fight, but Ponz has terrible IQ, and no chin whatsoever.

Rodriguez barely beat a retired Alex Morono before that, he’s just not the fighter he used to be. Holland has the advantage everywhere, especially the longer this fight goes as he doesn’t slow down, and D-Rod certainly does.

Dan Ige -200 vs Patricio Pitbull +170

Pitbull lost his UFC debut against Yair Rodriguez, he had trouble with the range and striking of Rodriguez, and while Ige isn’t as long as Rodriguez, he has good striking. Pitbull will look to clinch, and get Ige down as in close quarters is where he’ll have success.

Ige will have the volume, and power advantage, but Pitbull can be good on the ground so I’m not ruling him out of having good moments on the ground and against the fence.

I love this fight to go the distance. It’s a steep price to pay, but I don’t see a finish in this one. Pitbull is tough, but older so I don’t see him getting a finish or getting finished.

Daniel Zellhuber -500 vs Michael Johnson +375

It’s tough to find underdogs I like on this card, and Johnson certainly isn’t one of them. He’s won his last 2 fights, but against complete bums, and his last opponent, Azaitar, gets knocked out early, but he gave Johnson problems in the first round, and in the second until he inevitably got knocked out.

Johnson also beat Darrius Flowers, but needed a decision win, not a good look. Zellhuber is long, rangy and has good, crisp striking, and is coming off a close split decision loss, and if he had won that split decision he would’ve gotten a step up in competition, instead he gets a step down.

Johnson is 39, Zellhuber is going to have a lot of success at range, and with higher volume, he’s the easy pick here.

Vinicius Oliveira -170 vs Kyler Phillips +145

Oliveira has been incredibly impressive so far in the UFC. He’s shown KO power, a great ground game, and what he did against Nurmagomedov was incredible.

He had a very painful injury that he fought through, and he somehow toughed out a win. He’s as confident as anyone, he brags that he’s beat 4 Russians in his career, and he called out Umar Nurmagomedov after his last fight, a fighter nobody calls out.

We’ve had a great read on Kyler Phillips, we predicted his wins, and we predicted his loss against Rob Font.

He got outboxed and outvolumed on the feet, and he was only able to have success with takedowns, but Font has atrocious takedown defense, and Oliveira has great takedown defense.

Takedown defense, ground game, power, volume, speed and toughness are all on the side of Oliveira. I was worried about the injury, but he said it needed 6 weeks to heal, didn’t need surgery, and it’s been 5 months since his last fight.

He also said that Carlos Prates is helping him to find the best places to train in Thailand so if he’s working with or getting help from Prates, that’s another selling point. Oliveira is the clear pick, probably my favorite of the card.

Brendan Allen -210 vs Marvin Vettori +180

Vettori doesn’t seem to have much left for upside as a fighter. He’s dealt with injuries in his career, his striking doesn’t scare anyone at this point, it’s not fast, it’s predictable, and he doesn’t have a KO win in his last 8 fights.

Allen will have much more volume, he’ll be faster on the feet, and he’ll be better on the ground if it gets there.

Allen is coming off of decision wins to Hernandez, and Imavov, 2 of the best right now while Vettori just lost a snoozefest fight to Dolidze. Allen is the easy pick.

Francisco Prado -150 vs Nikolay Veretinnikov +130

Veretinnikov has dropped both of his UFC fights—one to a striker and one to a grappler—and hasn’t shown much in the way of offense or defense.

He was dominated on the ground by Vanderford and had extremely low output in his loss to Barlow, managing just 21 strikes over the first two rounds.

Prado, while a bit undersized, keeps a high pace and has faced better competition in recent losses to Jake Matthews and Daniel Zellhuber.

Veretinnikov hasn’t impressed, and Prado should outwork him across three rounds. Prado by decision is the pick.

Ateba Gautier -550 vs Robert Valentin +400

This is a striker vs striker matchup with fireworks written all over it. Valentin has dropped his UFC bouts to grapplers, but this time he gets a striking affair where he’s much more dangerous.

Gautier brings huge power but is still raw—his takedown game is lacking, his defense is suspect, and he’s vulnerable to leg kicks.

Valentin absolutely has the tools to land a bomb and pull the upset. The line is way too wide for how volatile this fight is. I like the Under 1.5 rounds at -125—someone’s getting knocked out early.

Islam Dulatov -560 vs Adam Fugitt +410

Dulatov is explosive, aggressive, and fights with serious urgency—he’s never gone the distance since his pro debut.

He uses his speed and striking to control range and pace early, often overwhelming opponents before they can settle in.

However, his cardio is a big concern if he doesn’t get an early finish. Fugitt is a durable UFC veteran with grappling and clinch experience, but he lacks the explosiveness to match Dulatov early.

The key here is survival—if Fugitt weathers the first-round storm, he’s very live in rounds 2 and 3 as Dulatov fades. No pre-fight bet for me—this is a classic live-bet spot on Fugitt if he survives round 1.

Jimmy Crute -240 vs Marcin Prachnio +205

Jimmy Crute unretired and fought Bellato to a draw, showing strong striking early and even earning a 10-8 first round, but his cardio faded badly in the later rounds.

That’s a concern against Marcin Prachnio, who brings decent, if sometimes reckless, striking and has shown vulnerabilities to takedowns —as seen in his loss to Bukauskas.

Crute’s wrestling edge should be a factor here, and if he mixes in grappling with his early striking success, he should be able to win at least two rounds and take the decision. Crute is the pick, but his cardio will need to hold up.

Ryan Spann -220 vs Lucas Brzeski +180

Lucas Brzeski’s durability has disappeared, with three knockout losses in his last four fights, and that’s a major red flag heading into a matchup with Ryan Spann.

While Spann has underperformed at times—often showing up out of shape with questionable cardio—he still carries real knockout power.

Brzeski’s defense and chin aren’t likely to hold up against even a few clean shots from Spann. Expect Spann to land something heavy early and get the KO finish. Pick is Spann by knockout, likely under 1.5 rounds.

Brunno Ferreira -750 vs Jackson McVey +525

Jackson McVey finally makes his UFC debut after several canceled bouts, but he gets thrown into the fire against a dangerous opponent in Brunno Ferreira.

McVey is a wild and violent striker—none of his fights have gone beyond the first round—but his aggressive, all-or-nothing style leaves huge openings that skilled opponents can exploit.

Ferreira continues to evolve, showing knockout power and an improving ground game, most recently submitting a talented striker in Petrosyan.

This is a tough matchup for McVey, and while Ferreira is the clear pick, the -750 price tag offers no value. Even the under 1.5 rounds is juiced to -250, making this a likely pass from a betting perspective.

Carli Judice -285 vs Nicolle Caliari +245

Carli Judice has a solid background with six pro fights and a strong amateur resume, and she brings a well-rounded striking game with good volume, KO power, and a nice mix of kicks and punches.

Nicolle Caliari is physically strong but slower on the feet, and she was controlled against the fence by a kickboxer in her last outing.

Caliari’s path to victory is through takedowns, but her wrestling isn’t particularly effective. Judice has a clear edge in speed and striking, and as long as she can keep the fight standing for at least two rounds, she should be able to do enough to win a decision. Judice is the pick.

Are you subscribed to WagerTalk TV? If not, what are you waiting for?! Set up alerts so that you never miss an episode of your favorite shows. Drop the gloves with the Puck Time crew and swing for the fences on First Pitch. From betting tips to free picks, WagerTalk TV is your one-stop shop for streaming sports betting content.

Get Andy Lang’s PREMIUM Picks!

WagerTalk also offers Free UFC Picks all year long! Also, at WagerTalk you can always find free MLB picks every day.

**************************************************

Looking for more free sports picks and sports betting tips?

Latest Betting Odds and Public Action: Vegas lines updated in real time, including who the public is betting on.
Last Minute Handicapping Advice: Check out our extensive library of handicapping tips and advice from professional Vegas handicappers (we also recommend taking the time to look over our sports betting tips video library)
Want an expert opinion? Check out the latest Free Sports Picks and Best Bets from our team of expert sports handicappers.