UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs O'Malley Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds June 7

UFC 316 Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC 316 picks and predictions forJune 7 with the main event headlined by Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley in a Bantamweight title fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley: UFC 316 Main Event

Saturday, June 7	UFC 316 Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Merab Dvalishvili -280 vs Sean O’Malley +230
Rounds:	4.5 Rounds (Over -280 / Under +210)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 10:00pm ET / 7:00pm PT
Arena:	Prudential Center in Newark, NJ
TV:	PPV

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UFC 316 Predictions

Khaos Williams vs Andreas Gustafsson

This is a clash of styles with both fighters stepping in on short notice after their original opponents dropped out.

Williams holds a clear experience edge and will look to keep this fight at range, using his speed and straight punches to stay out of danger.

Gustafsson, making his UFC debut at 34, brings relentless pressure and a brawling clinch-heavy style focused on knees, elbows, and body work. He openly admits he’s not technical—he’s chaos personified.

This fight likely comes down to whether Khaos can circle, avoid the clinch, and pick Gustafsson apart at range.

If he can stay disciplined, Gustafsson may walk into too much clean damage to stay upright. Advantage Khaos.

MarQuel Mederos vs Mark Choinski

Mederos vs. Choinski features a classic short-notice debut spot for Choinski, who comes in undefeated but untested at the UFC level, with most of his experience coming from Anthony Pettis’s league.

Mederos hasn’t been particularly flashy in his two UFC wins—his striking lacks pop—but he moves well, has solid clinch work, and his cardio is a real weapon.

Choinski is a mystery, but betting against a late-replacement fighter who hasn’t faced top-level competition is usually the right call. Mederos should be able to outwork him over three rounds. He’s the pick.

Quillan Salkilld -425 vs Yanal Ashmouz +330

Salkilld vs Ashmouz is a matchup between two well-rounded fighters, but Salkilld appears to have the edge in consistency.

He impressed on Contender Series and scored a quick finish in his UFC debut, though we didn’t get to see his full skill set. He’s solid everywhere—striking, grappling, and cardio—but doesn’t yet stand out in any one area.

Ashmouz is more explosive and dangerous early, with quick hands and strong takedowns, but when he can’t land clean or dominate the wrestling, his gas tank fades, as we saw against Duncan.

Salkilld should be able to weather the early storm and take over, but at the current price, this is a pass. Lean Salkilld, no bet.

Azamat Murzakanov -520 vs Brendson Ribeiro +390

Ribeiro vs. Murzakanov is a clear step up in class for Ribeiro, who enters on short notice and has only beaten low-level competition in the UFC. While Ribeiro is aggressive and willing to brawl, his takedown defense and overall game still look raw.

His last win came via kimura, but he was on his back after getting taken down, and hadn’t shown much before the finish.

Murzakanov, on the other hand, is 34 and undefeated, built more like an old-school brawler—nothing flashy, just brutally effective. He has surprising speed, heavy hands, and a knack for finding the target.

With Ribeiro stepping in late, Murzakanov’s power and pace should overwhelm him. The pick is Murzakanov by KO.

Joo Sang Yoo -455 vs Jeka Saragih +350

Yoo vs. Saragih is a fight between two low-level prospects, but it’s clear the UFC is trying to keep Saragih around for regional marketability, not skill.

He’s 1-2 in the UFC with his only win coming on a wild, fluky KO that he likely couldn’t recreate. In his other appearances, he’s been finished and looked overmatched.

Yoo is still a bit of a mystery but has shown real power, solid top control, and good cardio in what tape is available.

He does keep his hands low, which opens him up to counters, but his tools and upside are far better than Saragih’s. The safest angle is betting the fight not to go the distance, as someone’s getting clipped or finished. Yoo is the pick.

Serghei Spivac -125 vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta +105

Spivac vs. Cortes Acosta is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup, and I think we’re getting value on Spivac due to his recent losses—both of which came against elite competition. Spivac’s ground game has steadily improved, and that’s where he’ll want this fight.

Cortes Acosta will have the advantage on the feet, but this is a big step up in competition for him. If Spivac gets it to the mat, especially early, Acosta’s lack of grappling off his back should be exposed.

Both guys can gas, but Spivac’s pressure and top control should win the battle of fatigue. I’ll take Spivac to get it to the ground and find a finish.

Wang Cong -350 vs Ariana Lipski da Silva +275

Cong vs Lipski da Silva is a closer matchup than the odds suggest. Cong came into the UFC with hype and showcased solid kicks and striking in her first two fights, but she’s still raw and leaves herself open defensively.

This isn’t a favorable style matchup for her—da Silva’s biggest flaw is her takedown defense, but Cong doesn’t have the grappling to exploit it like others have.

On the feet, da Silva can absolutely hang with Cong and may even have the edge in power and experience. With the line too wide, I’ll take da Silva as a live underdog to pull off the upset.

Josh Van -550 vs Bruno Silva +410

Van vs. Silva is likely to stay on the feet, and that heavily favors Van. Silva has speed and power, but his striking defense is a glaring weakness—he gets hit far too often, and that’s a major problem against someone like Van.

Van is one of the most active fighters on the UFC roster, going 6-1 in under two years, and his volume, output, and defense are all clearly superior.

While the price is steep, Van is a reliable parlay piece—he should win this striking battle with cleaner technique and better composure.

Patchy Mix -166 vs Mario Bautista +140

Mix vs. Bautista is a high-level matchup that pits Mix’s well-rounded game against Bautista’s grinding clinch style.

Mix enters the UFC with a 20-1 record and all the tools—great cardio, strong striking at range, excellent clinch work, and no glaring weaknesses.

Bautista has frustrated opponents by stalling fights in the clinch, but Mix is too dynamic and composed to let that work for long.

At range, it’s Mix all day, and while it may be close at times, Mix should land the cleaner shots and do enough to earn a win in his UFC debut.

Kevin Holland -225 vs Vicente Luque +185

Luque vs Holland is a wild-card matchup between two unpredictable fighters with finishing power and submission skills.

Holland’s performances vary drastically—some nights he’s locked in and dangerous, other nights he’s passive and unfocused.

Luque is coming off a quick submission win but has absorbed a ton of damage over his career, raising serious durability concerns.

With both guys capable of pulling off a sub or landing a knockout shot, the safest read here is that this fight doesn’t go the distance.

Joe Pyfer -395 vs Kelvin Gastelum +310

Joe Pyfer brings fight-ending power every time he steps in the cage, but the concern is whether he can manage his gas tank if the fight goes past the first round.

He gassed badly in the Hermansson fight and paid the price, though he bounced back with a first-round KO in his next outing—so his cardio remains a question mark.

Kelvin Gastelum is tough as nails, has solid striking, and has never been knocked out in his career, but he continues to struggle with weight cuts and hasn’t looked elite lately.

His win over Daniel Rodriguez didn’t show much to be excited about. If Pyfer can manage his pace, he has all the upside and finishing potential here— he’s the pick.

Kayla Harrison -625 vs Julianna Pena +455

This fight is all about Kayla Harrison’s grappling. If she’s able to secure takedowns and establish top control, it’s going to be a long night for Peña.

Harrison’s judo and submission skills are elite, and once she’s on top, she dominates. Peña has some wrestling of her own, but her control and ground-and-pound don’t match up to Harrison’s strength or positioning.

On the feet, Peña might have a slight edge, but she’s low volume and lacks knockout power. I thought she was fortunate to get the decision win over Pennington last time out—she won’t be so lucky here. Harrison gets it done.

UFC 316 Main Event: Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O’Malley

I don’t see what changes in this rematch. Merab walked O’Malley down, and used his non-stop clinch and wrestling to get the decision win, and it’s like Merab is only getting better.

He just beat Umar in an insanely competitive fight, and O’Malley hasn’t fought since their first fight, and he’s been dealing with injuries, and honestly, I think other distractions outside the octagon with other business opportunities.

Now, he says his Dad is going to be in his corner as a 60th birthday present, and that’s a huge red flag when a fighter has a family member in his corner (see Kurt Holobaugh last week).

O’Malley has the length and power advantage, but with Merab’s smothering style that doesn’t stop for 5 rounds, I see another Merab decision win.

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