Best Home Run Prop Bets Today – HR Prop Picks For Thursday, May 21

The 2026 MLB season is here, and who doesn’t love home run prop bets? Tons of home runs have been hit this regular season and we’re ready to pick more winners on Thursday! Free home run prop picks come at you compliments of WagerTalk.

We cashed our home run prop yesterday with Juan Soto at +280! Let’s see if we can beat the books again with home run prop bets on Thurday with free MLB picks every day at WagerTalk! Here are the best home run prop bets to make for Thursday, May 21!

Best Home Run Prop Bets – MLB Free HR Props Picks

MLB HR Props Best Bet of the Day #1: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (TOR) +490

It’s been a subpar season for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the power department with only three home runs so far this season, but we’re going to take his home run prop tonight with excellent odds at Yankee Stadium.

New York sends lefty Carlos Rodon to the mound making just his third start of the season and although he hasn’t allowed a home run just yet he has allowed five earned runs in just eight total innings pitched.

Guerrero Jr. has averaged 32 home runs per season across his last five so the steep drop-off in home runs so far is somewhat head scratching. All-time against Rodon the Blue Jays first baseman is 11-18 with three doubles and two home runs and this season against lefties Guerrero Jr. is batting .306 and slugging .500 compared to going against righties batting .275 and slugging .338.

All three of Guerrero Jr.’s home runs have also come on the road with 17 of 22 home runs given up by Rodon last season coming off right handed bats.

It has been a dreadful month hitting for Guerrero Jr. which is why we get valuable odds for a home run tonight but he does have a hit in three of his last four games with one of those hits being a home run he hit in Detroit last Sunday.

In an attempt to get his power back in form, let’s take Guerrero Jr. to hit his home run prop tonight at +490 odds as the Blue Jays and Yankees close out their four-game set in New York.

MLB HR Props Best Bet of the Day #2: Nick Kurtz (ATH) +410

Angels righty Jose Soriano got off to a blazing start this season, but has since cooled off allowing 12 earned runs in his last three starts including two home runs as he takes the mound tonight.

We’ll go with lefty Nick Kurtz to hit his home run prop who has a .360 average and .680 slugging percentage across the last 15 days.

Of the five home runs Soriano has allowed this season four of them have come against left handed batters with Kurtz hitting seven of his eight home runs off righties while slugging .563 against them compared to slugging .344 against lefties.

He’ll walk into this game with a hot bat as well going 4-8 with a double and six RBIs in the last couple days at LA and has three of his eight total home runs this month as well.

Kurtz belted 36 home runs last season with six of them coming against the Angels which was second most against any single team as he looks to keep that success going against their AL West rival.

Soriano still has solid numbers overall this season, but has been more vulnerable at home sporting a 3.86 ERA while allowing three home runs compared to road starts notching a 1.14 ERA with two home runs allowed.

At +410 odds let’s take Kurtz to hit his ninth home run of the season tonight as the AL West leading Athletics look to make it three straight wins.

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