Tuesday College Football Week 11 Predictions: Miami (OH) vs Ohio & UMass vs Akron Picks

As college football heads into Week 11, midweek action takes center stage with two intriguing matchups of Miami (OH) vs Ohio and UMass vs Akron.

Both matchups feature teams looking to establish momentum, and this breakdown from The GoldSheet gives bettors insight into where the real value may lie.

Miami (OH) RedHawks vs Ohio Bobcats

This Tuesday’s meeting between Miami (OH) and Ohio is a true MAC Championship Game rematch. The Bobcats captured last year’s title clash with a commanding 38-3 win at Ford Field.

However, Miami has won-and-covered in the last two regular-season meetings, setting up a high-stakes return encounter.

Prior to last December’s defensive showcase from Ohio, the previous four matchups between these programs had all gone over the total, reflecting the explosive potential on both sides when the tempo quickens.

Miami (OH) vs Ohio Key Trends and Team Metrics

• Both teams enter this matchup on equal rest.
• Miami (OH) has been one of the hottest teams in the MAC, winning and covering five straight games.
• The RedHawks boast an edge statistically across most major categories despite both schools facing comparable schedules—their strength of schedule separated by just five spots in Sagarin’s national ratings.

Miami’s efficiency stands out: the RedHawks rank top-40 nationally in yards-per-play differential, underscoring their balanced production on both sides of the ball.

Meanwhile, Ohio’s defense has struggled, allowing 6.26 yards per play, a figure among the bottom-15 defenses in the country.

Defensively, Miami has been disciplined and explosive-play resistant—allowing only 25 plays of 20+ yards all season, which places them among the top-25 units nationally in limiting big gains.

Miami (OH) vs Ohio Prediction: Miami (OH) +3.5

While the current line favors Ohio, the data suggests this matchup projects closer to a pick’em, given both teams’ recent form and evenly matched statistical profiles.

The defensive turnaround and revenge narrative add intrigue to one of the week’s most compelling MACtion showdowns.

UMass Minutemen vs Akron Zips

The second Tuesday night contest features new conference rivals UMass and Akron. The Minutemen won the last meeting between these programs in September 2019, but they have not beaten an FBS-level opponent since October 2023.

Despite those struggles, UMass has quietly been competitive against the spread. Over the last two seasons, the Minutemen are 6-5-1 ATS as a double-digit underdog, routinely outperforming market expectations.

UMass vs Akron Key Betting Trends

• UMass nearly shocked Miami (OH) last year, pushing the RedHawks to overtime as a +15.5 underdog.
• The Minutemen also forced Liberty to overtime as a +16.5 underdog.
• Earlier this season, UMass nearly upset Buffalo, losing only in the final minute after leading much of the game.

This marks the first time since 2017 that Akron has been favored by more than a touchdown in a conference home game—a rare position for the Zips.

UMass vs Akron Prediction: Under 49

The more intriguing angle here centers on the total rather than the spread.

• UMass averages just 11.5 points per game this season.
• The Minutemen have scored only three touchdowns in four conference games.
• Both teams play at slow offensive tempos, favoring methodical drives over explosive strikes.

UMass ranks among the bottom-five nationally in generating explosive plays, and both coaching staffs are likely to emphasize prevent-style defenses, forcing opponents to “matriculate the ball down the field” and rely on precision rather than big plays.

Given recent performances, the trend has shown that offenses often commit mistakes before reaching the end zone, keeping scoring output low.

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