UFC Fight Night: Burns vs Morales Predictions, Picks and Betting Odds May 17

UFC Fight Night Betting Preview

UFC WagerTalk handicapper Andy Lang gives his UFC Fight Night picks and predictions for May 17 with the main event headlined by Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales in a welterweight fight. The main card starts up at 10:00pm ET from the UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV.

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Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales: UFC Fight Night Main Event

Saturday, May 17	UFC Fight Night Betting Notes (Courtesy of Caesars)
Moneyline:	Gilbert Burns +500 vs Michael Morales -850
Rounds:	3.5 (Over +100 / Under -130)
Fight Time:	Main Card Starts at 7:00pm ET / 4:00pm PT
Arena:	UFC APEX in Las Vegas, NV
TV:	ESPN+

UFC Fight Night Predictions

Tecia Pennington -325 vs Luana Pinheiro 

Raquel Pennington should be too sharp and well-rounded for Luana Pinheiro in this matchup. Pennington holds clear advantages in striking and speed, and her recent  performances—nearly beating Ricci in her return and following it up with a win over Carla Esparza—show she’s still at the top of her game.

Meanwhile, Pinheiro has  dropped three straight and looked uninspired, even getting out-struck by Gillian Robertson, who’s far from elite in that department.

Pennington’s experience  against top-tier opponents, combined with her pressure and cardio, should carry  her to a clear decision win. I like Pennington to win straight up, and if you’re hunting for value, Pennington by decision is a strong lean.

Hyun Sung Park -180 vs Carlos Hernandez +150 

Hyun Sung Park enters this fight undefeated, but his resume is filled with low-level competition, and it’s hard to gauge how good he really is.

While his grappling is  solid, he hasn’t been tested by anyone near the level of Carlos Hernandez, who  recently showed he can hold his own on the mat by getting top position against Tsuruya—one of the more respected wrestlers in the division.

The recent trend of Road to UFC graduates struggling under the UFC lights adds even more concern  around backing Park.

Hernandez may not be elite anywhere, but he’s tough, well rounded, and battle-tested, making him a live underdog here. The value is clearly on Hernandez, and he’s worth a shot at plus money.

Denise Gomes -575 vs Elise Reed +425 

Denise Gomes is a rightful heavy favorite in this matchup, with clear advantages in power, physicality, and versatility.

Elise Reed leans heavily on her striking but lacks any real grappling threat, and her recent win over a 42-year-old Jessica Penne doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Gomes should be able to control the exchanges  on the feet and dominate the clinch when needed. While a finish isn’t out of the question, Reed is durable enough to hang around, making Gomes by decision the best betting angle. Expect a one-sided, methodical performance from Gomes.

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Luana Santos -170 vs Tainara Lisboa +142 

Luana Santos being priced as a -170 favorite feels like a clear overreaction,  especially given her loss to Casey O’Neil, who came into that fight on a two-fight skid and isn’t exactly elite.

Tainara Lisboa may not have shown much on the feet, but her ground game looked solid in her UFC debut, with plenty of control time and effective takedowns.

This is a close, stylistic clash that should be much tighter than  the odds suggest. It’s a classic dog-or-pass situation, and the safest angle might be targeting the over props. Both fighters are tough and durable, so look for this one to go the distance.

Yadier DelValle -470 vs Connor Matthews +360 

Yadier DelValle looked sharp and composed in his Contender Series win, showcasing clean striking, vicious elbows in the clinch, and strong durability in a wild back-and-forth scrap.

He’s well-rounded and aggressive, and this matchup against Connor Matthews feels like a clear showcase opportunity.

Matthews hasn’t shown UFC-level skill, has been knocked out in both of his UFC appearances, and struggles with durability and defensive awareness.

DelValle should pressure early and overwhelm him with volume and power. DelValle by knockout is the most logical path and the bet to target here.

Jared Gordon -122 vs Thiago Moises +102 

Thiago Moises bounced back strong in his last fight against Trey Ogden, looking in  fantastic shape and showing improved striking with sharp leg kicks and solid output.

While his striking defense still leaves openings, his grappling remains a  major weapon, and he can control rounds if he gets the fight to the mat.

Jared Gordon is durable and tough, but he doesn’t have the same level of strength of competition, and he certainly doesn’t have the quality of wins. His last 2 wins are  over retired Mark Madsen, and retired Leonardo Santos.

Gordon will try and clinch  and work Moises against the fence, but if Moises can avoid getting clipped early and mix in his grappling, he has the tools to edge out a win. At plus money, Moises is a tempting underdog with a clear path to victory.

Matheus Camilo -230 vs Gabe Green +190 

Matheus Camilo may be a flashy striker, but laying this kind of chalk on a fighter who hasn’t faced UFC-level competition is a red flag.

He’s shown decent offensive  skills, but also gave up significant control time in his last fight, raising questions about his ability to manage pressure over three rounds.

Gabe Green is coming off a long layoff and two losses, but those came against Bryan Battle and Ian Garry—far  tougher opponents than anyone Camilo has seen.

This should be a stand-up affair, and Green’s edge in power, experience, and toughness gives him a real shot to pull the upset. All the value is on Green at +190, and he’s the side to back in this one.

Melquizael Costa -170 vs Julian Erosa +142 

Julian Erosa may be riding a three-fight finishing streak, but his defensive flaws  continue to show—his hands are low, his chin is questionable, and he leaves too many openings for opponents to exploit.

Melquizael Costa is a step up from the fighters Erosa has recently beaten and has the tools to make those mistakes costly.

Costa’s kicking game should be a major factor here, and as long as he can keep the fight standing and avoid Erosa’s opportunistic submissions, he has the striking edge to control this matchup.

Erosa’s chaotic style makes him dangerous, but it also makes him vulnerable. Costa is the cleaner, more composed fighter and should get the job done.

Nursulton Ruziboev -298 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +240 

Pretty easy handicap here. Ruziboev will have the longer reach, and  bigger striking advantage for sure. Stoltzfus is coming off a KO win, but it was against Barriault who decided to stand in the pocket and trade haymakers, and Ruziboev isn’t going to do that.

If he goes on the ground, Stoltzfus will have the advantage, but Stoltzfus puts himself in bad  positions on the feet, he lunges in and leaves his chin open, and I don’t see it going well for him. Ruziboev is the pick by KO.

Mairon Santos -142 vs Sodiq Yusuff +120 

Yusuff has lost 2 in a row, and the durability has to be in question after he got knocked out by Diego Lopes in his last fight, but he’s moving up a weight division and I think that should help him.

Mairon Santos even said he thought he lost his last fight in a split decision win, and before that he  knocked out Kaan Ofli who is terrible at the UFC level.

Yusuff will have to throw more volume in this one, but this is a big stepdown in competition  where I don’t think he’ll be too worried about Santos’s power. The underdog is the play here.

Rodolfo Bellato -535 vs Paul Craig +400

Bellato by KO. He’s big, strong, and powerful, and his biggest weakness is  his striking defense, but that’s not a worry against Paul Craig who doesn’t have striking.

His only path to victory is a submission, but he can’t wrestle, and all Bellato has to do is not end up on the ground in a grappling battle, and he’ll crush Craig on the feet. Easy pick for me.

UFC Fight Night Main Event: Gilbert Burns vs Michael Morales

Burns is 40 years old, and way past his prime. He was beating JDM who  just won the Championship, but JDM broke his arm in the first round, and  after that Sean Brady beat Burns handily.

His cardio isn’t there, his striking  isn’t there, and he’s known for his ground game, but he has 1 submission win in the last 6 years.

Morales is undefeated, and looks like the real deal as he’s 25 years old, and he’s gotten better each fight. His striking is getting really good, and he has good takedown defense.

This is a 5 round fight, I don’t see Burns having cardio to win over 5 rounds, Morales should win, probably by KO.

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