Free WNBA Basketball Predictions for JUL 8
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Los Angeles is an intriguing value play on Wednesday despite its recent struggles, as the betting market appears to be overreacting to the Sparks' record without Kelsey Plum. While Plum's absence has clearly impacted the offense, the Sparks have had additional time to adjust their rotations and should be desperate to respond after a poor offensive showing against Seattle in which they shot just 34% from the field and 17% from three-point range. Indiana enters the game off an 84-68 road win over Las Vegas in which Caitlin Clark (back) did not play. Even if Clark returns, there is no guarantee she'll be at full strength, placing added pressure on Kelsey Mitchell, who has carried the offense with five 25-point performances in her last seven games. Los Angeles still has enough talent in Nneka Ogwumike (16.1 ppg), Dearica Hamby (14.3 ppg) and Ariel Atkins (8.1 ppg) to compete defensively and control the paint, especially on its home floor. The Sparks have played better than their recent record suggests, and this matchup presents an excellent opportunity to catch Indiana in a classic letdown situation. From a technical standpoint, WNBA teams coming off two or more consecutive wins are just 120-154-1 ATS (43.8%) before the All-Star break, while small underdogs or favorites in games with totals of 172 or more points are 63-92-2 ATS (40.6%), failing to cover the spread by an average margin of 3.0 points per game. With the combination of scheduling, potential injury concerns for the Fever, and positive regression expected from Los Angeles offensively, the Sparks are well-positioned to pull off the upset. Gran the points with Los Angeles as Jeff Keim's Free Pick Winner for Wednesday, July 8.
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