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Member Notes
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MID-WEEK CHAMPIONS LEAGUE MATCHES (and how they affect league matches)
Soccer teams don't just play in a single competition like NFL teams or NBA teams, but have league matches on the weekends, Cup and Champions League matches mid-week, and there are also international breaks where players leave their clubs to go play for their countries' national teams. So, there is a great deal of interference between these competitions.
The Champions League is an international competition where the best teams from each country in Europe fight for the title of the European Champion. That's a pretty big deal for clubs because the Champions League offers a LOT of exposure to clubs and players, and the money involved is HUGE for a lot of these clubs.
Just to put that into perspective, smaller teams from, say, Greece, where I am from, don't have a lot of money and really small budgets. Just participating in the Champions League means that they get about 15 million dollars, and then they get about 1 million for group stage Draws, and almost 3 million dollars for group stage wins. They earn progressively more money as they move further into the competition, plus money from TV rights, and that kind of money is enough for next season's budget for a LOT of teams.
The money and exposure are just TOO MUCH to overlook, and that's why we see teams prioritizing the Champions League at the expense of their domestic leagues. As a rule of thumb, we tend to fade teams on the weekend prior to a mid-week Champions League match. Do NOT lay big numbers. We often see teams rotate heavily, and there is also the distraction of such an important upcoming match.
A Prime Example of that is Manchester City last season. They outright LOST to Brentford in the final match day of the EPL simply because they didn't care about that match. They had mathematically won the title weeks ago, and their two upcoming matches were a Cup final and a Champions League final. Yes, they lost on the weekend to a mid-of-the-table team while starting off as -175 favorites, but they went on to win both finals.
The opposite example is Tottenham in the EPL this season. They don't have any mid-week Champions League distractions because they didn't qualify for it. That has given them the option always to use their best starters in their weekend matches, and that's one of the main reasons they are sitting at the top of the EPL, ahead of teams like Manchester City, Liverpool and Arsenal.
PROMOTION/RELEGATION (tanking doesn't exist - teams fight for survival)
We often see teams in other sports, like the NBA or the NFL, tanking at the end of the season in order to get better draft picks the following season. That does NOT apply to soccer, because the concept of tanking simply does not exist. Leagues are open, in the sense that teams come in and out at the end of every season.
Most soccer leagues (except the MLS) have promotion and relegation, meaning that the 3 bottom teams of each league get relegated to the lower league at the end of the season, and the 3 TOP teams of the lower division get promoted.
That's a VERY important factor when you are betting in soccer, because there are several seemingly "bad" teams, usually at the bottom of the league table, that are actually playing quite well and beating the spread in the last few weeks of the season.
That's because they are fighting for their very survival at that point, they don't want to get relegated because they earn considerably fewer money in those lower divisions, and it's really hard to gain a promotion back to the top league.
So keep an eye out towards the end of the season, as we tend to bet on underdogs that are fighting for their lives.
INTERNATIONAL BREAKS (playing for national teams and how it affects club form)
Much like the mid-week Champions League or Cup distractions, there is also the International Break, where players leave their clubs to go and play for their respective national teams. There are several international breaks throughout the season, and they mostly last for 7-10 days, where each national team plays 2-3 matches.
Why is this important? Because a lot of things can happen during an international break, mainly injuries and fatigue, as some players have to travel all around the world and back.
Another interesting fact about international breaks is their effect on clubs, and this is another unwritten rule in soccer. We often see teams that are in good form prior to the break lose some of that steam after the break, and the reason is that they lost their flow, they didn't train with their team and some players came back injured.
But that also works the other way around as well, as we often see teams that are in bad form prior to a break play much better after the international break. And the reason is that the clubs have had the time to analyze and assess their weaknesses, and they usually come back improved. So be very careful while betting on soccer AFTER international breaks, and especially if there is Champions League involved the week after.
Example: Take Sevilla last season, prior to the World Cup break they had a record of W3 D7 L10 (a winrate of just 15%). After the World Cup break they went on a W8 D3 L2 run (a 61% winrate). And it's not just the schedule or the potential managerial change, it's that effect that I was just talking about. They took the time to assess their weaknesses, worked on how to be better and emerged from the international break with a clear focus on what to do next.
SAME GAME PARLAYS (What to look out for)
Same Game Parlays is an excellent way to tiptoe your way around low lines in a match. What we do with these is essentially to take two events from a match, for example a -200 ML and a -200 Total, pair them together for a nice -110.
While the two ingredients are unplayable by themselves at -200 each, but pair them together and you get a nice price.
Now here's the trick though: Draftkings offer ready-made Same Game Parlays, but they also allow you to create your own Same Game Parlay. One would expect these prices to be the same, but they are NOT. Quite often, we see Draftkings offer significantly different prices on their ready-made SGPs compared to if you make the same SGP by yourself. Always check these things, because 10 cents here, 20 cents there, it really adds up at the end of the season.
This is a real example for the upcoming El Clasico derby in the La Liga, between Barcelona and Real Madrid.
Real Madrid or Tie is -195 and unplayable by itself
The Under 4.5 Goals is -475 and also unplayable by itself
Since both plays are unplayable as Singles, we will take the Same Game Parlay with both these selections. And here is where it gets REALLY interesting. Draftkings offer ready-made Same Game Parlays, and the odds on this particular one (Real Madrid or Tie & Under 4.5 Goals) is -160. Not great. However, if we create our own Same Game Parlay and pick the EXACT same things, the odds are -115, a HUGE 45 cent gap.
Why would you take a -160 when you can take the exact same bet at -115? Always check these things, because 10 cents here, 20 cents there, it really adds up at the end of the season. DON'T LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE.
Today’s Free Picks
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| SLL | (201853) Valencia at (201854) Getafe | 3:00pm EST - Dec 8/2023 |
The PLAY: REGULATION Over 6.5 Cards (-110)
Getafe vs Valencia
La Liga, Friday, 3pm ET
Play: Over 6.5 Cards
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Playable to -120
Some real bad blood between these two teams since they started facing each other back in 2005, with most of their matches resulting in a LOT of fouls, cards, red cards, brawls, you name it. Over the last 10 years (20 matches):
2022/23: 7 and 11 cards, 2 red cards (one each in the same match)
2021/22: 10 and 12 cards, 2 red cards (one each in the same match)
2020/21: 8 and 15 cards, 3 red cards (one each in same match, and one more on Valencia)
2019/20: 9 and 5 cards, 1 red card for Valencia
2018/19: 7 and 7 cards in league, 13 and 8 cards in Cup, 1 red card for Getafe
2017/18: 9 and 13 cards, 2 red cards (one for each in different matches)
2015/16: 5 and 8 cards
2014/15: 10 and 7 cards, 1 red card for Valencia
2013/14: 8 and 10 cards, 1 red card for Valencia
Long story short:
Over 6.5 Cards is 18-2 (and 7-0 in L7) / Over 6.5 Cards is -110 at Draftkings
Red Card in 8 of L/13 matches / Over 0.5 Red Card is +215 at Draftkings
13 Red Cards in L/20 matches
Both Teams Red Card in each of L/3 seasons (or in 3 of L/6 matches)
Take 2u on the Over 6.5 Cards (-110 Draftkings) and 1u on the Red Card (+215 Draftkings)
| Sport | Game Selection | Game Time |
|---|---|---|
| GBL | (202473) Bochum at (202474) Hoffenheim | 2:30pm EST - Dec 8/2023 |
The PLAY: REGULATION Bochum +0.75 (-110)
Hoffenheim vs Bochum
Bundesliga, Friday, 2:30pm ET
(This is an actual 2% All-Access client play)
Play: Bochum +0.75
Oddss at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Play to -120
Hoffenheim in some really bad form right now, winless in L/5 (D2 L3) and are one of the weirdest teams in the Bundesliga, in the sense that they are tied for fewest points at home (4) and tied for most points on the road (16). That's one of those paradoxes in which a team performs much better away from home than in it. Hoffenheim have a W1 D1 L4 record at home, but a W5 D1 L1 on the road. Yes, they had a tough schedule at home so far, but it is definitely worth noting.
Now Bochum are coming to town and they are in really good form, unbeaten in L/5 (W2 D3 L0) and off a confident 3-1 home win against Wolfsburg. Granted, they are not one of the best away sides (W1 D3 L3) but two of those losses came to red hot Stuttgart and Bayern Munich, but othwerwise they've been pretty decent on the road.
Hoffenheim have a bad record when playing at home on a Friday, having won just 1 of L/6 matches in the last two seasons (W1 D0 L5).
Bochum have a win and a draw playing on a Friday (a win on the road), and last season they had a record of W2 D3 L1 playing on a Friday, and that sole loss was by one goal.
For whatever reason, Hoffenheim do NOT play well on Fridays, while Bochum have had a surprisingly good record on Fridays over the past 3 seasons (W6 D8 L3). That's another reason we like Bochum to at least put up a fight on Friday.
Which brings me to my final point, H2H. Bochum blasted Hoffenheim by 5-2 at home last season, and did lose in this venue by 3-2, but they have won 4 of L/5 against Hoffenheim so they certainly know how to get results.
All things considered, we are taking Bochum +0.75 (-110) which is a split line between Bochum +1 and Bochum +0.5. This bet wins if Bochum win or Draw, and also gives us the protection of just a half loss/half return if Bochum lose by exactly one goal.
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Consultant Bio
Pavlos betting on European sports when he was in High School, back when most people his age didn't even know how to bet. After acquiring a Bachelor's Degree in International Economic Relationships and development from the Democritus University in Greece, Pavlos took a different path.
Things really took off for him in 2014 when he officially started writing predictions for US-based sites. Things picked up pretty quickly, and he has produced thousands upon thousands of match previous and predictions. He tends to venture off the beaten path, looking for hidden gems in a myriad of games you can bet on.
Single and double bets aside, Pavlos likes to play the odds as well. While some days there are safe single bets, there are other days that provide opportunities for different bets. Bets like Correct Scores, amount of Yellow Cards, Half-Time/Full-Time results, and all kinds of prop bets. Pavlos covers the following leagues: Major League Soccer (MLS), Copa America, EURO Cup, English Premier League, German Bundesliga, Spanish La Liga, Italian Serie A, French Ligue 1, Champions League, and Europa League.
The betting systems he created have seen some massive pay-outs over the years. A couple of correct scores paired together can potentially save your entire season. These are small-stake bets that cost a few units but could bring massive returns on your investment.