Pavlos Laguretos

THE PLAY: REGULATION Total Over 2.75 (-123)

NAC Breda vs Emmen
Netherlands, Tuesday, 2pm ET

Play: Over 2.75 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -123
Line Parameter: Playable to -135, if odds lower than -135 take the Over 3 instead

Breda are coming off two high-scoring playoff matches against Roda, with 4 goals in the first leg and 5 goals in the second leg, they won both and are now one step closer to qualifying to the top division. They will host Emmen, who eliminated Dordrecht (2-2 at home, 1-0 on the road). We are looking at goals here, as both teams fit the profile.

Breda went 23-15 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the regular season, with an average of 3.1 goals/match. They were 12-7 to the Over 2.5 goals at home, with an average of 2.9 goals/match. Breda are on a 7-3 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 6 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. At home, they are on a 7-2 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 5 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. Both their playoff matches in the previous round had Over 3.5 goals. 

Emmen were 24-14 to the Over 2.5 Goals in the regular season, with an average of 3.1 goals/match. They were 14-5 to the Over 2.5 goals on the road, with an average of 3.3 goals/match. Emmen are on a 10-1 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 6 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. On the road, they are on an 11-2 run to the Over 2.5 goals, with 5 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. 

The two teams exchanged away wins in the regular season, with Emmen beating Breda in this venue by 3-1 but losing at home by 3-2, thus confirming the Over 3.5 Goals in both matches. In H2H matches in this venue over the last decade: 7-0 run to the Both Teams to Score, and 6-1 to the Over 2.5 Goals, with 4 of those going to the Over 3.5 Goals. 

This is a crucial match for the promotion, and things could get squeaky, but we got two teams with strong tendencies to the Over, and a small-stake bet on the Over is definitely worth it. 

Take 1u on the Over 2.75 Goals (-123), which is a split line between Over 2.5 Goals and Over 3 Goals. The Asian Total is starting to move towards 3 Goals, so you can pivot to the Over 3 if you can't find the Over 2.75 Goals (but with a chance of a Push if this match finishes with exactly 3 goals).