3% Take Dallas (#557)

Let me start with an excerpt from what I wrote about the Dallas Mavericks prior to their series against the Clippers, recommending a bet on Dallas to win the series:

“Real quietly, waaaaay under the radar, the Dallas Mavericks defensive efficiency was #1 in the NBA over their last 15 regular season games.  Unlike the Clippers superstars, the Mavs star duo of Luke and Kyrie are both fully healthy. And unlike LA, Dallas has been clicking on all cylinders since the trading deadline, when the acquisition of PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford (and Dante Exum’s return from injury) completely transformed their potential trajectory; a team with nothing but upside moving forward here in the postseason.”

The Mavs won twice both SU and ATS in three road playoff games against the Clippers in LA.  They went 8-1 SU in their last nine ‘meaningful’ regular season road games (not counting the last two games when Jason Kidd rested starters).  They were home dogs against OKC in February, a game they won by 35, and they closed out the season 5-2 ATS in their last seven meaningful tries as an underdog on any floor, including their SU win in Game 2 at LA in the last round.  Plain and simple – I trust Dallas on the highway and I trust Dallas stepping up in class, in an underdog role.

OKC is getting all kinds of betting market respect for sweeping a slumping, injury riddled Pelicans team in the first round.  But this is not a playoff tested, savvy veteran squad who we can trust to maintain momentum and focus after their long layoff; off since last Monday.  The series sweep over New Orleans was as much about the team that lost as it was about the team that won.  OKC had a week off before their playoff opener; a two point win in a game that came down to the final possession – the layoff hurt their rhythm and offensive chemistry.  Frankly, a similar result tonight would be no surprise for this bettor; a game that has all the makings of a tight, intense battle.  Too many points!  Take the Mavericks

Line Parameter: 3% at +3 or higher, 2% at +2.5 or lower