We played against James Paxton in his last start, and he did exactly what we expected him to: Allowed four runs on six hits with five walks in 5.0 innings. Unfortunately for us, Arizona's Tommy Henry was even worse. We're going to look to eliminate that portion of the equation on Sunday and just back the Braves' team total. Paxton's 3-0 record is fool's gold. According to Baseball Savant, his expected ERA of 6.19 is nearly three runs higher than his actual ERA (3.51). After posting a 24.6-percent strikeout rate last year, that number is down to 13.2-percent this year. After posting a 8.0-percent walk rate last season, that number is up to 19.3-percent this year. He enters Sunday in the bottom-20th percentile among pitchers in expected ERA, chase rate, whiff rate, strikeout rate, walk rate and hard-hit rate. Atlanta's lineup is top-5 in the league in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging, weighted on-base average, hard-hit rate and average exit velocity.