972 Cleveland at Atlanta

Betting against the Guardians pitching staff in this one. Logan Allen enters with a 5.06 ERA and 1.39 WHIP. According to Savant his pitching run value is in the 28th percentile, with his breaking ball and off speed pitches coming in even worse. The Cleveland bullpen threw 89 pitches yesterday, all the best six arms in the bullpen. In fact, Clase, Gaddis and Barlow, the end game threesome have all pitched 2 of the last 3 days. 

Atlanta leads MLB in xRC+ at 128, 28% better than league average. This is a good hitting ballpark, and this Braves lineup in loaded, even without a couple injured starters. As good as this Cleveland team has been thus far, they won’t be able to slow down the Braves offensively.

PLAY ATLANTA TEAM TOTAL OVER 4.5 

Good to -137