952 Washington at Miami

Nats starter Trevor Williams is off to a terrific season with a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His pitching run value is in the 84th percentile, and his fastball run value is in the 86th. He has six pitches and he’s always been able to keep the opposition off balance. After a down 2023 we really think there is value backing the Washington righty. The bullpen is in good shape as both Finnegan and Harvey will be fully available in the late innings. 

Miami ranks 29th in offensive xRC+ at 67, just ahead of the White Sox at 63. Those numbers mean Miami is 33% worse than a league average team offensively. They are also playing in a good pitching ballpark, so we expect Williams and the Washington bullpen to shine. The current team total for the Marlins is at 4 1/2 runs. Way too high in this matchup.

PLAY MIAMI TEAM TOTAL UNDER 4.5 

Good to -150