MLB 2%

PHI -107

Both these lineups are similar on paper across the board with their stats. The Padres have knocked in more than the Phillies this season, but they are doing so against “weak” pitchers and getting into team’s bullpens early on. Both teams have been finding their form in the last 7 days, but the Padres did so while playing in Colorado the last 4 games which is going to inflate their stats compared to other stadiums.

The edge in this matchup is within the pitchers slated to start tonight. Nola has been exactly what the Phillies expect out of him outside of his first start of the season against the Braves. Aaron is suspect to give up the long ball as he has given up a home run in each of his last 3 starts, but outside of those home runs, settled down in each start to keep his team in the game and eat up innings. Musgrove not only has struggled, especially lately, while giving up a combined 10 runs in his last 3 starts with 4 combined home runs. The analytics point to him throwing worse than his stats show as he has been on the right side of a lot of loud outs. The Padres also have used up their bullpen arms during their trip to Colorado having to go to 5 bullpen arms last night and 3 others the 2 nights prior.