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Blue Jays (7:07PM ET SNLA, SNET, MLB.TV) – The LG Twins get it done to start Friday with a winner and I’ll look to keep it going on Friday night as we head North of the border for a 5% MLB MAX BET when the Toronto Blue Jays take on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first game of a three game set at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Ontario, Canada. 

We are only a month into the season, but this is at least the 50th time I’ve gone on record talking about how much I love this Blue Jays team.  I know Toronto is just 13-13 but the Jays have played an insanely tough schedule and have had to deal with some bullpen injuries so I actually think it’s impressive they have come out the other side to this point playing .500 baseball.  I’m going to start “buying” here, the Blue Jays are probably going to win 90 games this season and I’m not at all worried about three straight losses in Kansas City because that’s a REALLY strong Royals squad.  I like the Royals so much I think they end up winning the AL Central and could factor into the American League Pennant chase so to me that’s just a solid team taking care of business at home.  Toronto started their season with a Tampa/Houston/Bronx road trip and are in a stretch where they played the Yankees (home) followed by another difficult road swing from San Diego to Kansas City.  Toronto’s splits are better at home and I think getting them as an underdog against a big “name” is a spot have to max out on tonight. 

The Jays slumped badly in Kansas City but saw some decent pitching so I think it’s possible they break out of their collective slump at home against Gavin Stone here. If not for a slew of pitching injuries for the Dodgers I think Stone would still be starting games for Oklahoma City and if the Dodgers had better options he would have already been sent back down.  Stone has allowed 32 baserunners in 18 innings so far this season, his numbers aren’t great (6.00 ERA 1.78 WHIP) but could be a lot worse as he has avoided giving up the huge hits (still hasn’t allowed a home run this season).  The Blue Jays were just 4/22 with RISP in the series with the Royals but there’s an element of good luck/bad luck to the RISP/LOB stuff and that’s something I expect to turn around for the Jays in this series.  I’ve spoke about the Dodgers bullpen on a couple of occasions this season, this isn’t a bad unit by any means but the numbers are “mid” when you look at the rest of the league and I think it’s something that goes unnoticed because the Dodgers offense is so good and scores so many runs. The Dodgers high leverage guys are not immune to giving up runs and I think the Blue Jays can ride the momentum of being at home to getting the big hit on Friday night.

This group of Jays (Bo, Vlad, Springer, etc.) has been better at home and there’s no question tonight’s starter Chris Bassitt prefers pitching at Rogers Centre.  Season after season Bassitt puts up better numbers at home and 2024 has been no different (small sample so far) with a 1.38 ERA in Toronto but a 6.14 ERA on the road. Bassitt has also been significantly better against right handed hitters, that doesn’t bode well for having to fade Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani but those two are tough outs for everyone so I think Bassitt will be smart enough to pitch around them when possible and challenge everyone else.  I thought Bassitt did a good job of this in his most recent start against the Padres and his stat line in that game is deceiving with the majority of the damage coming in the 6th inning of a game where Bassitt was desperately trying to give his team length as the Jays bullpen was totally worn out.  That’s one thing the Jays don’t have to worry about here, not only is the bullpen unit healthier than it’s been all season the rain shortened game yesterday gave every Jays reliever a day off.  The Dodgers needed high leverage innings from Evan Phillips, Alex Vesia and Daniel Hudson yesterday, all have pitched twice in the past three days so I’ll give the nod to the Jays bullpen in the high leverage spots here.  Play on Blue Jays +105 for 5% (or 5 units)