4% Washington w/Williams +1.5 runs -143  Miami

Luzardo was a scratch but will still fade the Miami as a sizeable favorite. The Marlins are 6-20 and as a pk/fav they are 0-9 while posting a 2-11 record at home. Miami is batting .210 their L8 games and have topped 3 runs only once in their last 8 games. 

Williams is making his 5th start and he has a 2.91 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Well aware that the National bats have struggled but there is still solid value. On the road the Nationals are 6-6 but with an avg line of +166 they are +42% ROI and with the +1.5 runs they are 9-3. 

Miami also home with rest off a 7 road trip which has been a negative.