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7:10 PM ET -- MLB 

969 Chicago Cubs  
970 Boston Red Sox

Play: 969 CHICAGO CUBS -105

List Pitchers: Imanaga  

Bet Size: 4%

Line Parameters:
4% play at -115 or better 
3% play at -116 to -125
2% play at -126 to -130

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

Since the 2022 season, Kutter Crawford is 0-8 (Team's Record) when starting at home on 5 or 6 days of rest.  The average line was Crawford -123.8, yet his team lost by an average of 3.1 runs per game.

Since last season, Boston is 0-5 at home with the total between 7 and 8.