3% Take Minnesota (#537)

Let me start with this: If you’ve actually watched the first two games of this series, how on earth can you ask the Suns to lay more than a bucket in Game 3? 

The Suns weren’t elite in the regular season; the Timberwolves were.  The Suns won a whopping 15 games in SU fashion this season without covering the pointspread; unable to build and hold leads while being consistently overvalued in the betting marketplace.  The Suns have one elite strength – their perimeter shooting.  But there’s only one ball to share between Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, Grayson Allen and Eric Gordon.  And Minnesota head coach Chris Finch has a bevy of elite perimeter defenders between Jaden McDaniels, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and Kyle Anderson; a team that can match up with the Suns shooters again tonight, just like they did in the first two games of this series.

While the Suns have 15 wins this year without covering the spread, the T-wolves had only two games all year where they covered the spread without winning.  One came at Boston, the other vs Denver – this team can step up in class.  Taking Minnesota plus the points gives us two ways to cash our bet – the outright upset or the tight defeat; both of which are ‘live’ tonight.

The quotes coming out of Phoenix aren’t exactly ‘bet-on’, to put it mildly.  Bradley Beal: “They're not going to stop. They're going to continue to be aggressive, continue to push the envelope the way they have. And we have to respond. We haven't responded yet."  Suns head coach Frank Vogel: “We've got to be better. When they're swarming on us and we're not getting the right stops, we can't not be organized offensively."

Those aren’t ‘we’re confident we’re going to win quotes, like we saw out of Philly and Orlando prior to last night’s games’.  Those are ‘if we lose again tonight, we’ll have excuses’ kind of quotes, in this bettor’s opinion.  Contrast that with what we’re hearing from Minnesota; who was on the wrong end of an 0-3 deficit in the playoffs last year after LOSING Game 3 on their home floor to Denver. 

Rudy Gobert, talking about their defensive effort: “We can see it. I can feel it. I can see them," Gobert said. "It's tough. No one likes going against the type of defense that we're playing right now."  NBA Sixth Man of the Year, Naz Reid, talking about their focus heading into Game 3: "It's super satisfying, but it's not over. You've got to kind of continue that and actually up it. We're trying to get to somewhere that we've never been. Two games don't get it done. I think everybody has understood and knows the assignment and I think everybody is going to up it. I think we're all ready for it."  Karl Anthony Towns, talking about positive chemistry in Minnesota: “Everyone down the (roster) list has shown they'll be willing to do whatever it takes to sacrifice whatever it is for the betterment of the team.”   Live dog here!  Take the Timberwolves.

Line Parameter: 3% at +4 or higher, 2% at +3.5 or lower