Alex De Minaur ML +110 (vs Nadal)

ATP Barcelona for Saturday 

Surprisingly to some, we are going against Nadal here. He's back off some huge injuries and just doesn't look the same at all. He still looks tentative and injured and this is supported by his recent comments saying he isn't expecting to win and doesn't know how long he has left. De Minaur might be the worst possible opponent. He is relentless in speed, court coverage, and consistency. He beat Nadal last week comfortably with Nadal playing a decent set 1 and still losing. Nadal may show glimpses of promise but to be consistent enough to beat ADM I can't see. +110 is huge value to me.

We expect this line to move towards De Minaur, so if De Minaur gets to -160 or worse, add Jannik Sinner -2000 ML v Sonego as a parlay piece to get this number lower.