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920 Houston at Chicago Cubs

The final numbers for the first start of the season for Justin Verlander looked OK. Six innings and two earned runs. But a closer look at the advanced stats showed a 17.6 barrel %. His 3.00 ERA was 4.07 in xERA. He didn’t walk anyone but his SO% was only 19.0. The Astros have really underperformed thus far, with a .280 win percentage. Only better in the AL than the Chicago White Sox. Houston is 6-16 vs better than .500 ball clubs, and the Cubs come in 15-9 on the season. 

Javier Assad has been terrific out of the gate. A 2.11 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in his first four starts. His hard hit % is in the 93rd percentile. His Savant pitching run value is in the 88th percentile, with his fastball coming in at the 90th percentile. 

Cheap number on the team playing much better baseball.

PLAY CHICAGO CUBS

Good to -112