3% BAL ML (-124) listed/listed

Tyler Anderson is a good pitcher to fade right now, due to being miss-priced for his low ERA. But his xFIP is 5.19 and his SIERA is 5.34. Kremer is over a full point better in each. 

SIERA refresher for those who don’t know:
- it tells us how the underlying skills of a pitcher rate
- it tells us how they actually pitched over the last year, not just a quick glance at ERA, wins, etc.
- it informs what to expect in future outings
- SIERA under 3 is excellent, 3.25 is great, 3.75 above-average, 3.9 average, 4.2 below average, 4.5 poor, 5.0 or worse = awful.

Lesson over, but it is important to understand what these terms actually mean; so you are not trusting in an irrelevant number, from someone who doesn’t dive deep.

BAL is raking LHP: 8th in BA, 5th in wRC+ at 27% above average, 4th in ISO, 5th in SLG
LAA vs RHP is slightly to greatly below league average in all metrics.

The Baltimore pen is more trustworthy than LA’s. 

The implied odds at -125 are 55.5%
Our model has BAL winning at 59.75% or a fair price of -148

Good to -140
heritage