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The Gold Sheet

The Gold Sheet

(519) New Orleans Pelicans at (520) Oklahoma City Thunder

Event:
(519) New Orleans Pelicans at (520) Oklahoma City Thunder
Sport/League:
NBA
Date/Time:
April 24, 2024 9PM EDT
Play Rating:
3%
Odds:
-110
Play:
3% – New Orleans Pelicans +7.5 (-110)
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Our handicap on this series is a fairly straight-forward one: We don't believe Oklahoma City is 7.5 points better than New Orleans. We didn't believe it before Game 1, and we still don't believe it before Game 2. The Thunder earned a 94-92 home win on Sunday in a game that featured some anomalies on the offensive end. There were only 22 free throw attempts in that contest, which is half of what these teams averaged during the regular season (44 combined per game). They also shot just 22-of-71 (30-percent) from three-point range after both were top-five during the regular season in three-point shooting percentage. This is not your typical 1 vs 8 matchup like we have in the East where the dominant Celtics appear poised to dispatch the struggling Heat. Our power ratings make this game close to a pick'em. The Thunder certainly get a boost for home court advantage and New Orleans gets docked for missing Zion Williamson. But those two factors do not add up to 7.5 points. As a road underdog, the Pelicans went 15-5-1 against the spread this season (best in the NBA). 

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