3% Take Miami (#517)

This is not a bet based on fundamentals; it’s a bet based on my opinion of the Miami Heat’s mentality off a blowout loss; a ‘team character’ play.  The Heat were non-competitive in Game 1, no shock.  Miami had just played two max intensity games last week just to notch the #8 seed; Boston hadn’t forgotten the Heat’s seven game series win over them in the Eastern Conference Finals last year; and the Heat were without starters Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier.  The Celtics led Game 1 by 34 points early in the fourth quarter before a late Miami run cut the closing margin to 20.

Let me start with this. Miami is 8-0 SU and ATS off their last eight losses, dating back to March, a ‘bet-on’ team after a single defeat.   They’re 5-0 SU and ATS off a loss by 15 points or more since January, consistently and repeatedly bouncing back strong off a shoddy showing.  It’s not like Eric Spoelstra has no ideas about how to beat this Celtics team in Boston – the Heat won THREE TIMES on this floor in the playoffs last year. 

Spoelstra’s quote didn’t sugarcoat anything: "They won the big-muscle areas. Definitely won the 3-point line and the majority of the areas in between, including defensively. They were up and into us, getting us out of our normal flow, rhythm. So we have to do a much better job by Wednesday."

I want Miami as a big underdog in a step-up in class game off a dismal showing, plain and simple; a role that has served Heat backers very well this season.  The Celtics just drained a playoff-franchise-tying high 22 made three pointers in Game 1; not a record I’m expecting them to approach again this evening.  Expect Miami to hang around…… too many points!  Take the Heat.

Line Parameter: 3% at +14 or higher, 2% at +13.5 or lower