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9:45 PM ET -- MLB 

913 New York Mets  
914 San Francisco Giants

Play: UNDER 7.5 -125

List Pitchers: Severino & Webb   

Bet Size: 5%

Line Parameters:
5% play at 7 or better 
3% play at 6.5

My MLB plays are determined by statistical data (standard and advanced metrics from fangraphs.com), history involving similar games and situations (researched through the SDQL database), and current market data.  A play is made when enough of these factors align.  The play's size is determined by how many of these factors align, how much value is perceived, and how confident I am about the play.

KEY SITUATIONAL ANGLES:

The UNDER is 10-0 going back to last season when Logan Webb starts against an opponent with a win percentage between .501 and .549.  These games stayed UNDER by an average of 2.85 runs per game.  Average Score: Webb 2.0, Opponent 3.3

The UNDER is 11-0 when Logan Webb starts when the team won his previous start, he allowed no more than 2 runs in that start, and the team won his last start against the current opponent and that game went over the total.  These games stayed UNDER by an average of 3.05 runs per game.  Average Score: Webb 2.7, Opponent 3.0

The UNDER is 12-1 since 8/1/2022 when Logan Webb starts at home and the number of hits he allowed in his previous start was less than his average number of hits allowed on the season.  These games stayed UNDER by an average of 2.4 runs per game.  Average Score: Webb 2.85, Opponent 2.5

Going back to last season, the UNDER is 14-0 when the Giants play at home on a Tuesday.  These games stayed UNDER by an average of 2.4 runs per game.  Average Score: Giants 3.3, Opponent 2.6