Liverpool Montevideo vs San Lorenzo
Copa Libertadores, Tuesday, 8pm ET

Play: Over 2 Goals
Odds at Time of Release: -110
Line Parameter: Playable to -120

Both teams started the Copa Libertadores with home 1-1 wins against the two big teams in this group, Palmeiras and Independiente del Valle, while they both lost the second match on the road, each by two goals. That means that Palmeiras and Independiente del Valle are sitting at the two top spots with 4 points each, Liverpool Montevideo are 3rd with 1 point, a -2 goal difference and a better offense (2 goals), while San Lorenzo are sitting 4th also with 1 point, a -2 goal difference and the worst offense (1 goal). 

San Lorenzo have been struggling offensively for quite some time now, they scored just 10 goals in 14 matches in the Copa de La Liga in Argentina (January-April), and they also scored just 11 goals in 14 matches in the previous edition of the Copa de La Liga (August-October). In last season's Liga Profesional in Argentina, they did finish 3rd with the best defense (13 conceded goals), but they also had the 5th worst offense with 23 goals in 27 matches. 

The result was to sack coach Insua who has been leading them all that time, and replace him with 43-year-old (former club legend) Leandro Romagnoli, and the team played for a goal-less draw in his first match at the helm. They did create a lot of chances and they did change their formation from a back-5 to a more offensive 4-2-3-1, which will most likely create a lot more scoring chances for this team. 

Especially against a Liverpool Montevideo side that hasn't kept a clean sheet since the Uruguayan Super Cup against Defensor Sporting back in February 1st. Both Teams to Score is a whopping 13-0 since then, so San Lorenzo will find their chances to score. 

Which brings me to my final point: The two top teams will advance to the Copa Libertadores knock-outs, while the 3rd team will move to the Copa Sudamericana knock-outs and the 4th team will be eliminated. With powerhouses Palmeiras and Independiente del Valle already sitting at 4 points each (and playing against one another in the other match of the group), the two small ones (Liverpool M. and San Lorenzo) will fight it off for the 3rd spot, most likely. However, if any of them win and there is now draw in the other match, they can temporarily sit at the 2nd spot, with 3 more matches to go. 

That being said, I don't think we will see a very defensive match here, as Liverpool Montevideo have consistently produces matches with at least two goals (each of L/13 had 2 goals or more, and 8 of 13 had 3 goals ore more). San Lorenzo are under the new manager bounce (that didn't really go well in his debut), they changed their formation to one that is a little more offensive and they might be able to end their offensive drought against a Liverpool Montevideo side that will give them spaces. 

If you are bold enough and think that San Lorenzo will score here, the Both Teams to Score at +110 is a great option. But if both teams are going to score, we can take the safety of the Over 2 Goals at -110, which is a different bet (and pushes at the 1-1 exact score), but it can win (or push) even if San Lorenzo don't score. 

Take 3u on the Over 2 Goals (-110)