Sportivo Trinidense vs Nacional Potosi
Copa Sudamericana, Tuesday, 8pm ET

Play: Both Teams to Score
Odds at Time of Release: -120
Line Parameter: Playable to -130

This is one of the least appealing matches on the slate on Tuesday, and I found myself wondering why I was even trying to cap this match. But as I was researching, more and more stuff came to light and a play came up. 

Both teams are in horrible shape, Sportivo Trinidense are coming off 6 consecutive losses, including losses in both Copa Sudamericana matches so far, against Boca Juniors and Fortaleza, both to nil. They are having a horrible season in their domestic league in Paraguay, sitting dead last with 7 points after 14 matches (W2 D1 L11), scoring 15 goals and conceding 28. 

But let me tell you, this team fought really hard in both Copa Libertadores matches so far, despite losing both to nil, they stood their ground against two much better opponents, and they have a pretty solid offense that can score. It's their defense that is bad and allows goals left and right. But their coach said that this is a game that they really want the win to boost their confidence. But the -200 on the ML for a team that has 6 straight losses is just crazy. 

The odds are so inflated because Nacional Potosi are in horrible form as well, losing 5 in a row and winning just 1 of L/7 (W1 D1 L5), and conceding 10 goals within their last 5 matches alone. Take those results with a grain of salt, because they sacked coach Claudio Biaggio and brought back a familiar name in Alberto Illanes, who will serve for the 3rd time as a coach for Nacional Potosi, while he has also served both as an assistant coach and as a technical director, so he knows this team very well and they are under the new manager bounce. 

With Fortaleza and Boca Juniors already at 6 and 4 points respectively, Nacional Potosi (1 point) and Sportivo Trinidense (0 points) will most likely fight for the 3rd spot that leads to the Copa Sudamericana knock-outs. No matter how bad Nacional Potosi have been doing, the +550 on their ML feels way too high, they are playing against another struggling team and they are both looking to win this match, so they will both go in front to look for goals.

One thought was tying to exploit the huge gap in odds and take Nacional Potosi +1 (+103), but we will pivot to the Both Teams to Score (-120). Sportivo Trinidense last kept a clean sheet in November (22 matches ago) and Nacional Potosi (despite their struggles), have scored in 6 of 7 away matches in 2024. 

Take 1u on Both Teams to Score -120