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Andy Lang

Andy Lang

UFC Parlay

Event:
UFC Parlay
Sport/League:
MMA
Date/Time:
April 27, 2024 5PM EDT
Play Rating:
5%
Odds:
-115
Play:
5% – Victor Henry -520 (v Rani Yahya) + Matheus Nicolau -175 v Alex Perez (v Alex Perez) FInal Price: -115
Result:
Loss
Analysis

Victor Henry -520 (v Rani Yahya) + Matheus Nicolau -175 v Alex Perez (v Alex Perez) FInal Price: -115

Play Up To -140 then lower to 4%

Victor Henry -520 v Rani Yahya +440

Rani Yahya is 39, and looked so old and slow in his last fight where he got knocked out early by Montel Jackson, I felt bad for him.  He got a takedown on Jackson, but it was easily reversed and Jackson got the KO win shortly after.  Henry is faster, and better anywhere this fight goes, but on the feet, the speed difference is going to be evident.  Henry will work leg kicks early and often, and that will set up the jabs and strikes to the head.  Yahya will probably try and get a takedown, but Henry has good takedown defense, and he's more than capable of scrambling and getting back to his feet if Yahya gets it on the ground.  Henry is coming off of one of the more bizarre endings to a fight when he got kicked in the genitals, and he had to go to the hospital and the fight was ruled a no contest.  This is a massive step down in competition and a get-right fight for him.  Henry should roll.

Matheus Nicolau -175 v Alex Perez +145

Perez has had three fights since 2020, and he lost all of them, but he lost to Figureido, Pantoja, and he just lost a really close one to Mokaev, but that loss doesn’t look great now as it turned out Mokaev was fighting with a staph infection, and was not at 100%.  Perez has dealt with a ton of injuries over the years, and he was very open in his interviews before last fight that he’s here to promote his Acai juice business, and that’s what he does full-time now.  The injuries and inactivity have derailed his career, and he’s just not at a high level right now.  His striking didn't look crisp, and while he defended takedowns well, he didn't show much offense so I don't know where or how he plans on attacking.   Nicolau got knocked out by Brandon Royval in his last fight, but he had won 6 in a row before that.  He’s patient, and he likes to circle on the outside to set up his shots so Perez will be the one engaging, and that should play into Nicolau’s hands.  I think he dictates the pace and controls how the fight goes.  Perez will probably be a bit too overzealous and he’ll make some mistakes early that will give Nicolau openings on the feet.  The other big selling point is that Perez is taking this on somewhat short notice, and this is a 5-round fight, and Perez was slowing down towards the end of the 3rd round of the Mokaev fight.  Perez’s best days are behind him, and Nicolau should have the big advantage on the feet, and with cardio so this is a fantastic parlay piece.

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