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5% Minnesota Timberwolves -150

Dating back to 2018, First round favorites are 20-1 SU (95.2%) / 18-3 (85.7%) ATS when the line is higher than the previous game they won as a home fav.

This makes sense for a few reasons.  The first round is usually the biggest difference in talent between 2 teams compared to later rounds.  As a result, The better team wins in relatively easy fashion and the oddsmakers expect it to continue.  I agree in this scenario.

There are a few big glaring differences between these teams.  1) MIN has been the best defensive team in the league while the suns have been untrustworthy defensively.  2) MIN is the much bigger & better rebounding team.  The Wolves out rebounded PHX 52-28 and 15-3 on the offensive glass.  That is something I find hard to change/overcome for PHX with the players available.  3) MIN has the best player on the court in Anthony Edwards.  PHX has all the big names but he showed all season long and again in game 1 that he is a top dog and can carry the Wolves offensively. 

KD & Beal went a combined 17-27 (62.9%) from the field while Booker struggled going 5/16 (31.2%).  I could see all 3 stars having a good game at home, but hard to see it happen on the road against this defense.  O’Neale shot 50% and added 14 points but the rest of the role players didn’t have a great game.  On the other side, the role players stepped up for MIN on both sides. In general role players play better at home and I expect that to continue.  The wolves have been dominant all year at home.  As a home fav they’ve won 29 out of 39 (74.4%) games SU while only covering 16 of 39 (42.1%).  At -150 the implied probability is 60% and that still gives us a 14.4% edge on the team trend and 35.2% edge on the League wide situation.  Wolves go up 2-0 Tuesday before heading the PHX.